Ethereum · ETH/USDT · daily
What happens to Ethereum after RSI falling below 30?
Since 2017, Ethereum has shown RSI falling below 30 28 times. In the 27 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 48% of the time, with a median move of −0.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ETH is +0.3%.
No better than chance16
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 92% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 28 | 46% | −0.6% | −4.3% to +2.9% | +0.1% | −0.7% | 49% | 44 |
| 3 days | 28 | 39% | −3.6% | −9.7% to +4.9% | +0.2% | −3.8% | 6.4% | 91 |
| 7 days | 27 | 48% | −0.6% | −9.3% to +3.7% | +0.3% | −0.9% | 92% | 16 |
| 14 days | 27 | 37% | −2.1% | −13.0% to +5.7% | +0.3% | −2.4% | 84% | 42 |
| 30 days | 27 | 30% | −5.1% | −18.3% to +1.5% | +1.1% | −6.2% | 76% | 44 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ETH over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 65%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 16 the gap over 7 days was −1.4%, and in the later 11 it was +0.5%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | $2,053 | +0.2% | open | open |
| 2 Jun 2026 | $1,860 | −2.5% | −11.8% | −8.6% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | $1,941 | +0.3% | +0.8% | +7.8% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $2,452 | −7.4% | −14.9% | −17.3% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | $2,834 | −2.4% | +6.4% | +5.1% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | $3,287 | +4.2% | +4.0% | −4.7% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | $1,581 | −1.8% | +1.1% | +14.9% |
| 28 Feb 2025 | $2,238 | −0.9% | −4.3% | −19.2% |
| 4 Aug 2024 | $2,689 | −10.0% | −5.0% | −9.8% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | $3,060 | −2.5% | +1.3% | −5.1% |
| 11 Sep 2023 | $1,552 | +2.6% | +5.5% | +1.0% |
| 26 Aug 2023 | $1,647 | +0.7% | −0.6% | −3.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 28 are in the open data file.
The rule
14-day RSI closes below 30 after being at or above it the day before. An RSI reading under 30 is the most widely quoted "oversold" signal in technical analysis.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stellar | 30 | 70% | +4.7% | +5.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Conflux | 26 | 73% | +6.9% | +8.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Radworks | 20 | 70% | +6.0% | +6.9% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Ethereum Classic | 37 | 62% | +2.0% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 32 | 69% | +2.4% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 33 | 58% | +2.6% | +3.9% | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 26 | 69% | +5.1% | +5.2% | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 36 | 56% | +1.0% | +2.3% | Weak evidence |
RSI drops below 30 across all 94 coins
Other Ethereum signals
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