Conflux · CFX/USDT · daily
What happens to Conflux after large-trade selling?
Since 2021, Conflux has shown large-trade selling 31 times. In the 31 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 35% of the time, with a median move of −8.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CFX is −1.6%.
Some evidence · leans down69
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 17% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is downward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 31 | 42% | −1.5% | −7.8% to +2.3% | −0.2% | −1.3% | 38% | 22 |
| 3 days | 31 | 35% | −2.3% | −9.1% to +4.4% | −0.7% | −1.6% | 65% | 45 |
| 7 days | 31 | 35% | −8.7% | −13.8% to +3.8% | −1.6% | −7.1% | 17% | 69 |
| 14 days | 31 | 39% | −6.5% | −17.2% to +12.4% | −3.3% | −3.2% | 83% | 20 |
| 30 days | 31 | 35% | −10.6% | −24.8% to +49.1% | −8.2% | −2.4% | 95% | 18 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CFX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.8%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 18 the gap over 7 days was −3.5%, and in the later 13 it was −9.1%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | $0.05285 | +2.2% | +6.9% | +4.0% |
| 21 Jul 2025 | $0.2197 | −20.4% | −11.5% | −15.7% |
| 8 Apr 2025 | $0.06510 | +13.4% | +3.7% | +31.8% |
| 28 Mar 2025 | $0.08570 | −8.5% | −5.5% | −10.6% |
| 21 Mar 2025 | $0.08660 | +5.1% | −1.0% | −17.3% |
| 14 Mar 2025 | $0.08330 | +4.2% | +4.0% | −16.3% |
| 7 Mar 2025 | $0.09960 | −1.5% | −16.4% | −28.5% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | $0.1136 | +2.0% | −13.3% | −19.3% |
| 17 Feb 2025 | $0.1192 | −5.5% | −6.8% | −23.5% |
| 27 Jan 2025 | $0.1608 | −12.1% | −24.4% | −27.9% |
| 4 Dec 2024 | $0.2443 | +0.9% | −12.1% | −28.5% |
| 24 Apr 2024 | $0.2427 | +4.9% | −10.7% | −8.9% |
The 12 most recent. All 31 are in the open data file.
The rule
Average trade size in the top 5% of the previous 180 days, with the share of volume from market buys below 50%. When the average trade gets unusually large, bigger players are active. Here they are active while market sells outweigh market buys.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot | 35 | 66% | +3.6% | +4.6% | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 43 | 30% | −4.7% | −3.5% | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 44 | 36% | −4.4% | −3.8% | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 39 | 31% | −4.3% | −3.3% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 41 | 37% | −4.2% | −2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 50 | 54% | +2.8% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 82 | 38% | −1.7% | −2.0% | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 42 | 33% | −3.6% | −2.5% | Weak evidence |
Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control across all 94 coins
Other Conflux signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals