Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control: does it work in crypto?
When the average trade gets unusually large, bigger players are active. Here they are active while market sells outweigh market buys. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 3,263 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence1 of 940 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance51 of 94coins
Scored cases3,263since 2017
The rule. Average trade size in the top 5% of the previous 180 days, with the share of volume from market buys below 50%.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Conflux | 31 | 35% | −8.7% | −1.6% | −7.1% | 17% | 69 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Polkadot | 35 | 66% | +3.6% | −1.0% | +4.6% | 37% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 43 | 30% | −4.7% | −1.2% | −3.5% | 41% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 44 | 36% | −4.4% | −0.7% | −3.8% | 53% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 39 | 31% | −4.3% | −1.0% | −3.3% | 57% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 41 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.3% | −2.9% | 62% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 50 | 54% | +2.8% | −0.6% | +3.4% | 53% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 82 | 38% | −1.7% | +0.3% | −2.0% | 45% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 42 | 33% | −3.6% | −1.1% | −2.5% | 63% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 40 | 53% | +1.7% | −1.2% | +2.9% | 65% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 28 | 36% | −9.0% | −0.5% | −8.4% | 14% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 26 | 35% | −3.3% | +0.6% | −4.0% | 31% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 44 | 39% | −3.6% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 76% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 51 | 49% | −0.7% | +0.5% | −1.2% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 45 | 36% | −2.9% | −1.2% | −1.7% | 86% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 41 | 46% | −3.2% | −1.3% | −1.9% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 39 | 38% | −2.3% | −0.7% | −1.5% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 45 | 56% | +0.6% | −0.2% | +0.8% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 16 | 19% | −8.4% | −1.7% | −6.6% | 37% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 44 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 40 | 53% | +0.4% | −0.1% | +0.5% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 30 | 63% | +1.0% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 60% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 37 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.2% | +1.2% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 47 | 45% | −0.3% | −0.6% | +0.3% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 49 | 49% | −0.3% | −0.6% | +0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 38 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.6% | +0.6% | 95% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 31 | 55% | +1.1% | −1.4% | +2.5% | 78% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 29 | 31% | −4.1% | −1.6% | −2.5% | 71% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 21 | 62% | +3.8% | −0.9% | +4.7% | 56% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | −0.9% | +2.6% | 66% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 33 | 39% | −1.9% | −3.0% | +1.1% | 93% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 26 | 50% | +1.7% | −1.3% | +3.1% | 73% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 32 | 41% | −2.5% | −1.2% | −1.4% | 91% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 30 | 43% | −1.3% | −0.4% | −0.9% | 87% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 25 | 40% | −2.7% | −0.8% | −1.8% | 79% | 42 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 26 | 38% | −3.8% | −1.7% | −2.1% | 80% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 29 | 41% | −1.4% | −0.5% | −0.9% | 88% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 27 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.3% | +1.1% | 90% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 12 | 25% | −8.4% | −3.4% | −5.0% | 64% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 21 | 29% | −3.9% | −1.7% | −2.2% | 86% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 16 | 56% | +1.2% | −1.5% | +2.7% | 81% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 18 | 33% | −3.1% | −2.2% | −0.8% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 16 | 38% | −3.2% | −2.0% | −1.2% | 93% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 14 | 36% | −1.1% | −2.2% | +1.2% | 94% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 13 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.3% | +1.3% | 96% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 53 | 40% | −3.9% | −1.1% | −2.7% | 42% | 27 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 39 | 54% | +2.1% | −0.6% | +2.7% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 59 | 42% | −2.7% | −1.0% | −1.6% | 63% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 43 | 44% | −3.1% | −1.3% | −1.8% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 56 | 45% | −1.5% | −0.8% | −0.7% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 48 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.9% | −0.9% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 52 | 54% | +1.1% | +0.1% | +1.0% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 45 | 42% | −1.3% | −0.5% | −0.8% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 62 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 47 | 47% | −0.6% | +0.1% | −0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 64 | 59% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 47 | 45% | −1.2% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 19 | 58% | +6.7% | −0.5% | +7.3% | 39% | 21 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 46 | 48% | −0.5% | −0.8% | +0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 41 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 33 | 42% | −3.3% | −1.3% | −2.0% | 79% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 36 | 42% | −2.5% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 47 | 45% | −1.4% | −0.8% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 57 | 54% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 0.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 48 | 44% | −0.8% | −1.0% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 65 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.2% | −0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 41 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 37 | 35% | −2.0% | −1.5% | −0.5% | 95% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 55 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.7% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 24 | 33% | −7.3% | −2.7% | −4.5% | 60% | 19 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 31 | 55% | +1.6% | −0.3% | +2.0% | 85% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 24 | 58% | +2.0% | −1.7% | +3.7% | 67% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 31 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 92% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 31 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.5% | +1.5% | 86% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 28 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.1% | +2.1% | 79% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 30 | 53% | +1.0% | −0.3% | +1.3% | 90% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 29 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 92% | 17 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 29 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.4% | +1.3% | 90% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 31 | 45% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.2% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 29 | 38% | −2.8% | −1.7% | −1.1% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 15 | 47% | −7.6% | −2.7% | −5.0% | 68% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 27 | 44% | −2.2% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 94% | 15 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 28 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.8% | +0.5% | 97% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 27 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.5% | +0.2% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 28 | 46% | −0.8% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 100% | 14 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 24 | 46% | −2.9% | −1.7% | −1.2% | 92% | 14 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 26 | 46% | −1.9% | −1.9% | 0.0% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 17 | 53% | +0.2% | −1.6% | +1.8% | 85% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 21 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.4% | −0.7% | 96% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 20 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 97% | 11 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 19 | 47% | −2.5% | −1.9% | −0.6% | 97% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 15 | 47% | −2.6% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 15 | 47% | −2.3% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 14 | 43% | −1.4% | −2.5% | +1.1% | 96% | 9 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.