What happens to Cosmos after a 5% rise in a day?

Since 2019, Cosmos has shown a 5% rise in a day 187 times. In the 185 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 49% of the time, with a median move of −0.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ATOM is −0.9%.

Weak evidence46

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 83% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 2019187last on 4 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days49%ordinary: 47%

Median 7-day move−0.2%ordinary: −0.9%

Could be luck83%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−48% / +73%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ATOM drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 185 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	185	48%	−0.4%	−2.4% to +2.3%	−0.1%	−0.3%	75%	21
3 days	185	43%	−0.9%	−5.1% to +5.8%	−0.3%	−0.6%	63%	47
7 days	185	49%	−0.2%	−7.0% to +8.6%	−0.9%	+0.6%	83%	46
14 days	184	47%	−1.1%	−10.5% to +11.5%	−1.4%	+0.2%	97%	20
30 days	184	43%	−2.8%	−17.1% to +14.4%	−3.1%	+0.3%	97%	20

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ATOM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 46%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−9.1%ordinary ATOM: −8.0%

1 case in 4 dipped past−15.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way46%ordinary: 41%

Typical best point+9.2%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−0.5%ordinary: −1.1%

Ahead after costs49%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 111 the gap over 7 days was +0.6%, and in the later 74 it was +0.6%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
4 Nov 2026	$1.48	−8.2%	−5.8%	open
9 Oct 2026	$2.07	−5.5%	−14.1%	−36.9%
18 Sep 2026	$1.72	+1.5%	+4.2%	−1.6%
8 Sep 2026	$1.86	−0.1%	−18.3%	−5.2%
21 Aug 2026	$1.60	−1.6%	−7.5%	+10.2%
13 Aug 2026	$1.50	+0.7%	+0.8%	+6.9%
3 Aug 2026	$1.37	+0.7%	+2.5%	+6.5%
7 Jun 2026	$1.72	+3.0%	+17.1%	−8.2%
16 May 2026	$2.04	−0.2%	+3.5%	−3.6%
7 Apr 2026	$1.81	−1.6%	−3.5%	+4.4%
16 Mar 2026	$1.98	−0.9%	−9.7%	−10.7%
13 Feb 2026	$2.12	+3.0%	+11.1%	−12.3%

The 12 most recent. All 187 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 5% above the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Shiba Inu	105	30%	−5.0%	−3.6%	Strong evidence · leans down
Radworks	96	35%	−4.0%	−3.1%	Strong evidence · leans down
Audius	139	38%	−3.9%	−2.7%	Some evidence · leans down
Sun	100	38%	−2.4%	−2.0%	Weak evidence
Amp	78	35%	−4.2%	−2.0%	Weak evidence
Prom	68	53%	+1.9%	+2.1%	Weak evidence
Request	90	40%	−2.3%	−1.8%	Weak evidence
Filecoin	139	40%	−2.9%	−1.8%	Weak evidence

5% rise in a day across all 94 coins

Other Cosmos signals

20% drop in a weekStrong evidence · 37 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 54 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 50 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 67 cases 20% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 41 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 61 cases

Full Cosmos record

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