Cosmos signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ATOM candle since 29 Apr 2019 (2,757 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ATOM price · last close$1.2614 Nov 2026 close: $1.26 (7d −8.3%)
RSI (14)33.1between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average1.31×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume49.1%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−97%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in a week | 37 | 70% | +7.5% | −0.9% | 3.1% | 99 | Strong evidence · leans up | 27 Feb 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 54 | 59% | +3.1% | −0.9% | 33% | 53 | Weak evidence | 3 Nov 2025 |
| 10% jump in a day | 67 | 36% | −3.8% | −0.9% | 42% | 51 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 56 | 38% | −2.1% | −0.9% | 83% | 48 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 30 | 60% | +3.4% | −0.9% | 46% | 48 | Weak evidence | 8 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 30 | 57% | +2.9% | −0.9% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence | 13 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 14 | 79% | +4.4% | −0.9% | 58% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 44 | 39% | −2.9% | −0.9% | 73% | 24 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 29 | 59% | +3.7% | −0.9% | 46% | 24 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 48 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.9% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 6 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 71 | 45% | −1.0% | −0.9% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Jul 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 31 | 55% | +1.1% | −0.9% | 80% | 19 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 23 | 57% | +2.0% | −0.9% | 72% | 17 | No better than chance | 12 Jul 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 23 | 43% | −2.4% | −0.9% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 24 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.9% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 23 | 35% | −2.1% | −0.9% | 91% | 14 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 25 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.9% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance | 23 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 67% | +3.5% | −0.9% | 32% | Too few cases | 19 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 25% | −7.4% | −0.9% | 15% | Too few cases | 9 Nov 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in a day | 14 | 79% | +9.0% | −0.9% | 15% | 66 | Some evidence · leans up | 3 Nov 2025 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 50 | 54% | +3.2% | −0.9% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence | 3 Nov 2025 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 41 | 44% | −3.7% | −0.9% | 59% | 51 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2025 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 61 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.9% | 60% | 50 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 64 | 56% | +1.2% | −0.9% | 64% | 49 | Weak evidence | 15 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 114 | 54% | +0.5% | −0.9% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 124 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.9% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 185 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.9% | 83% | 46 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 11 | 82% | +8.7% | −0.9% | 28% | 45 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 24 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.9% | 83% | 41 | Weak evidence | 22 Nov 2024 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 13 | 38% | −3.2% | −0.9% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence | 7 Dec 2024 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 58% | +7.0% | −0.9% | 24% | 26 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 40 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.9% | 85% | 23 | No better than chance | 13 Dec 2024 |
| 5% drop in a day | 174 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.9% | 72% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 114 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.9% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 34 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.9% | 73% | 22 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 51 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.9% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 126 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.9% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 22 | 55% | +1.3% | −0.9% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance | 13 Apr 2024 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 8 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.9% | 89% | Too few cases | 3 Jun 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 9 | 56% | +1.7% | −0.9% | 56% | Too few cases | 24 Nov 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 16 | 75% | +8.4% | −0.9% | 17% | 64 | Some evidence · leans up | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 100 | 51% | +0.5% | −0.9% | 72% | 48 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 82 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.9% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 20 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.9% | 97% | 11 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Death cross | $1.37 | open |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $1.30 | open |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $1.47 | −11.1% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.64 | −12.7% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $1.72 | −12.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Golden cross | $1.75 | −6.1% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.