After a 5% rise in a day: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 13,137 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence3 of 940 lean up · 3 lean down
No better than chance46 of 94coins
Scored cases13,137since 2017
The rule. Close at least 5% above the close one day earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shiba Inu | 105 | 30% | −5.0% | −1.5% | −3.6% | 5.1% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 96 | 35% | −4.0% | −0.9% | −3.1% | 9.9% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 139 | 38% | −3.9% | −1.2% | −2.7% | 17% | 66 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Sun | 100 | 38% | −2.4% | −0.4% | −2.0% | 24% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 78 | 35% | −4.2% | −2.2% | −2.0% | 36% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 68 | 53% | +1.9% | −0.2% | +2.1% | 39% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 90 | 40% | −2.3% | −0.5% | −1.8% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 139 | 40% | −2.9% | −1.1% | −1.8% | 45% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 151 | 38% | −3.4% | −0.9% | −2.6% | 33% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 80 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.7% | +1.4% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 149 | 56% | +1.8% | −0.1% | +1.8% | 59% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 162 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.6% | +1.3% | 58% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 229 | 53% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +2.1% | 38% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 83 | 49% | −0.7% | −2.7% | +2.0% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 156 | 42% | −2.3% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 69% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 157 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.5% | +1.5% | 48% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 82 | 49% | −0.5% | −2.2% | +1.7% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 103 | 47% | −0.4% | +0.6% | −1.1% | 69% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 74 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.6% | +1.0% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 116 | 45% | −1.6% | −0.3% | −1.3% | 65% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 134 | 44% | −3.0% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 65% | 48 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 91 | 33% | −3.3% | −1.9% | −1.4% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 157 | 50% | +0.2% | −1.4% | +1.6% | 60% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 123 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.7% | +1.6% | 72% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 125 | 40% | −2.8% | −1.3% | −1.5% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 161 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.3% | +1.1% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 149 | 42% | −1.8% | −1.0% | −0.9% | 72% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 93 | 42% | −2.3% | −1.5% | −0.8% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 128 | 45% | −2.5% | −1.2% | −1.4% | 75% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 176 | 43% | −1.2% | −0.1% | −1.1% | 67% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 185 | 43% | −2.6% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 128 | 41% | −2.5% | −1.5% | −1.0% | 76% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 179 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.3% | +1.3% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 206 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.6% | +0.8% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 133 | 45% | −0.4% | −1.0% | +0.6% | 91% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 185 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.9% | +0.6% | 83% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 128 | 45% | −1.0% | −1.3% | +0.4% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 182 | 47% | −0.7% | −1.0% | +0.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 160 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.7% | +0.8% | 90% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 111 | 38% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 130 | 39% | −3.6% | −3.0% | −0.6% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 146 | 45% | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 135 | 41% | −2.3% | −1.7% | −0.5% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 184 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.2% | +0.1% | 97% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 193 | 48% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 160 | 47% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.2% | 96% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 42 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 176 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 113 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.4% | +2.3% | 52% | 24 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 134 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.7% | +2.0% | 54% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 141 | 48% | −1.5% | −0.2% | −1.3% | 58% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 122 | 42% | −2.7% | −1.1% | −1.7% | 59% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 79 | 48% | −0.1% | −1.6% | +1.4% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 136 | 53% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +0.6% | 77% | 22 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 160 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.6% | +1.0% | 85% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 169 | 43% | −1.9% | −1.0% | −0.9% | 68% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 202 | 47% | −1.8% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 68% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 92 | 40% | −3.8% | −2.5% | −1.3% | 83% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 175 | 53% | +1.1% | −0.4% | +1.5% | 69% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 200 | 50% | −0.3% | +0.3% | −0.6% | 82% | 21 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 158 | 53% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.2% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 204 | 50% | +0.5% | +0.1% | +0.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 85 | 49% | −0.8% | −1.5% | +0.7% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 95 | 42% | −1.8% | −1.4% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 103 | 42% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 116 | 48% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 87 | 41% | −2.2% | −1.9% | −0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 178 | 49% | −0.9% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 79 | 42% | −1.5% | −2.0% | +0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 148 | 44% | −2.2% | −1.8% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 126 | 44% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 219 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 157 | 42% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 167 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 203 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.8% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 162 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 116 | 53% | +0.6% | +0.7% | −0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 161 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 179 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.1% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 196 | 51% | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 106 | 41% | −2.8% | −2.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 160 | 45% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 101 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.3% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 206 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.3% | +0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 180 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.5% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 84 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.5% | +0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 146 | 46% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.3% | 94% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 146 | 43% | −1.6% | −1.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 198 | 45% | −1.0% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 145 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.2% | −0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 79 | 43% | −3.2% | −3.4% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 133 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.4% | +0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 142 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 192 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.8% | −0.2% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.