After a 10% rise in 3 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 8,771 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence3 of 940 lean up · 3 lean down
No better than chance37 of 94coins
Scored cases8,771since 2017
The rule. Close at least 10% above the close 3 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 61 | 25% | −6.3% | −0.9% | −5.4% | 3.1% | 99 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 58 | 31% | −5.3% | −0.5% | −4.8% | 3.1% | 99 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 DODO | 104 | 39% | −4.4% | −0.8% | −3.6% | 22% | 57 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 65 | 32% | −4.6% | −1.5% | −3.1% | 26% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 94 | 39% | −4.2% | −1.0% | −3.2% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 82 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.1% | −3.2% | 28% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 59 | 34% | −6.2% | −1.9% | −4.2% | 32% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 92 | 36% | −3.2% | −1.0% | −2.2% | 35% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 111 | 37% | −4.0% | −1.2% | −2.8% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 81 | 43% | −4.3% | −1.3% | −3.0% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 64 | 56% | +3.4% | −0.3% | +3.7% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 68 | 44% | −1.4% | +0.6% | −2.0% | 40% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 93 | 42% | −4.1% | −1.2% | −2.9% | 26% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 83 | 35% | −4.5% | −1.5% | −3.0% | 34% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 63 | 38% | −2.4% | −0.4% | −2.0% | 39% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 146 | 55% | +2.7% | +0.1% | +2.6% | 34% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 70 | 41% | −4.3% | −1.4% | −2.9% | 54% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 86 | 34% | −5.9% | −3.0% | −2.9% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 56 | 34% | −4.4% | −2.0% | −2.5% | 61% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 128 | 42% | −3.4% | −0.3% | −3.1% | 28% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 88 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.7% | +2.7% | 52% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 117 | 54% | +1.6% | −0.3% | +1.9% | 58% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 85 | 40% | −3.8% | −1.4% | −2.4% | 58% | 49 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 67 | 43% | −5.1% | −2.7% | −2.3% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 106 | 40% | −2.9% | −0.9% | −2.0% | 60% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 116 | 43% | −2.9% | −0.7% | −2.2% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 89 | 39% | −3.3% | −1.2% | −2.1% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 22 | 59% | +2.9% | −0.3% | +3.2% | 27% | 49 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 85 | 39% | −3.7% | −1.7% | −2.0% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 127 | 44% | −2.6% | −0.4% | −2.2% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 134 | 43% | −3.5% | −1.3% | −2.2% | 49% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 109 | 43% | −2.5% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 63% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 95 | 41% | −3.3% | −1.6% | −1.7% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 46 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.6% | +1.2% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 116 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 133 | 43% | −3.0% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 72% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 132 | 42% | −2.0% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 71% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 55 | 38% | −2.5% | −1.5% | −1.0% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 114 | 46% | −1.0% | −0.1% | −0.9% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 129 | 42% | −1.6% | −0.1% | −1.6% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 70 | 44% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 55 | 42% | −3.5% | −2.2% | −1.3% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 132 | 46% | −1.5% | −0.5% | −1.0% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 52 | 44% | −0.8% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 61 | 41% | −3.1% | −1.9% | −1.2% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 92 | 42% | −1.4% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 84 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.3% | −0.9% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 119 | 50% | +0.7% | +0.3% | +0.4% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 96 | 42% | −1.1% | −0.8% | −0.3% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 108 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.2% | +0.3% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 131 | 48% | −1.4% | −0.6% | −0.8% | 89% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 132 | 46% | −1.4% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 50 | 40% | −3.9% | −3.4% | −0.5% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 101 | 44% | −1.0% | −1.3% | +0.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 106 | 53% | +0.4% | +0.5% | −0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 51 | 39% | −1.5% | −1.7% | +0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 114 | 49% | −0.3% | −0.6% | +0.2% | 97% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 87 | 47% | −2.5% | −0.2% | −2.3% | 36% | 26 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 76 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.3% | −2.0% | 56% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 83 | 41% | −2.8% | −1.1% | −1.8% | 65% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 43 | 37% | −3.3% | −2.2% | −1.0% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 95 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.2% | +1.5% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 84 | 42% | −3.5% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 70% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 50 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.6% | +1.7% | 76% | 23 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 74 | 51% | +0.1% | +0.7% | −0.6% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 108 | 51% | +0.5% | −0.4% | +0.9% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 60 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.5% | +1.2% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 57 | 40% | −1.6% | −2.7% | +1.1% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 74 | 46% | −1.6% | −0.8% | −0.8% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 143 | 43% | −2.4% | −1.3% | −1.1% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 94 | 43% | −2.4% | −1.3% | −1.1% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 67 | 37% | −2.5% | −1.7% | −0.8% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 134 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.0% | 74% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 135 | 46% | −1.5% | −0.6% | −0.9% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 138 | 46% | −1.6% | −0.6% | −1.0% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 100 | 39% | −2.2% | −1.2% | −1.1% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 82 | 55% | +0.9% | +0.5% | +0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 114 | 47% | −1.1% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 143 | 48% | −0.4% | +0.1% | −0.6% | 90% | 21 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 122 | 45% | −1.5% | −0.6% | −0.8% | 90% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 126 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.9% | −0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 162 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 126 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.0% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 55 | 51% | 0.0% | −0.5% | +0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 94 | 47% | −2.0% | −1.3% | −0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 95 | 46% | −2.3% | −1.8% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 68 | 41% | −3.1% | −2.5% | −0.6% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 86 | 45% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.2% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 101 | 48% | −0.9% | −1.0% | +0.1% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 101 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.5% | −0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 102 | 45% | −1.3% | −1.2% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 88 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 107 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.4% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 114 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.