ConstitutionDAO signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily PEOPLE candle since 23 Dec 2021 (1,788 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
PEOPLE price · last close$0.0048314 Nov 2026 close: $0.00483 (7d −20.0%)
RSI (14)23.3under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.81×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume48.4%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five red days in a row | 20 | 65% | +10.6% | −1.3% | 5.8% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans up | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 53 | 49% | −0.1% | −1.3% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 33 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.3% | 90% | 44 | Weak evidence | 20 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 18 | 33% | −6.6% | −1.3% | 57% | 43 | Weak evidence | 12 May 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 26 | 50% | +1.7% | −1.3% | 73% | 43 | Weak evidence | 9 May 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 20 | 50% | +0.8% | −1.3% | 87% | 39 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 16 | 56% | +1.3% | −1.3% | 84% | 37 | Weak evidence | 10 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.3% | 94% | 36 | Weak evidence | 20 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 12 | 50% | +0.7% | −1.3% | 91% | 34 | No better than chance | 10 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 66 | 44% | −3.6% | −1.3% | 68% | 24 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 52 | 54% | +0.3% | −1.3% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 62 | 40% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 40 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 27 Aug 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 20 | 55% | +4.0% | −1.3% | 54% | 19 | No better than chance | 20 Jul 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 22 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.3% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance | 15 Jun 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 19 | 37% | −3.1% | −1.3% | 91% | 12 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Golden cross | 4 | 25% | −10.9% | −1.3% | 20% | Too few cases | 22 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 67% | +5.8% | −1.3% | 41% | Too few cases | 11 Oct 2025 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 7 | 29% | −13.6% | −1.3% | 4.2% | Too few cases | 20 Aug 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% rise in a day | 36 | 33% | −10.7% | −1.3% | 4.0% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 44 | 36% | −6.9% | −1.3% | 25% | 55 | Some evidence · leans down | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 49 | 35% | −4.2% | −1.3% | 64% | 50 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 68 | 44% | −3.6% | −1.3% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 102 | 42% | −3.6% | −1.3% | 56% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 101 | 41% | −3.4% | −1.3% | 63% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 97 | 42% | −3.0% | −1.3% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 134 | 44% | −3.0% | −1.3% | 65% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 27 | 63% | +2.8% | −1.3% | 60% | 46 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 13 | 23% | −8.6% | −1.3% | 51% | 44 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 16 | 75% | +3.6% | −1.3% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 29 | 38% | −2.1% | −1.3% | 96% | 41 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 21 | 52% | +1.6% | −1.3% | 79% | 40 | Weak evidence | 25 Aug 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 12 | 67% | +2.6% | −1.3% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence | 16 Feb 2025 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 56 | 52% | +2.4% | −1.3% | 44% | 26 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 149 | 48% | −0.8% | −1.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 94 | 47% | −2.0% | −1.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 52 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 25 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 27 | 41% | −1.0% | −1.3% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance | 25 Aug 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 23 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.3% | 90% | 14 | No better than chance | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 11 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance | 10 May 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 48 | 50% | +0.2% | −1.3% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 38 | 42% | −2.7% | −1.3% | 89% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 5 | 60% | +5.1% | −1.3% | 35% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 13% | −10.6% | −1.3% | 8.5% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00604 | −20.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00593 | −5.1% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.00593 | −5.1% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.00651 | −11.1% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.00651 | −11.1% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00750 | −13.2% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.00864 | −10.2% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00765 | +0.3% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.