ConstitutionDAO · PEOPLE/USDT · daily
What happens to ConstitutionDAO after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day?
Since 2021, ConstitutionDAO has shown Bitcoin drops 5% in a day 41 times. In the 38 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 42% of the time, with a median move of −2.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for PEOPLE is −1.3%.
No better than chance21
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 89% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
On the day itself, the median move was −11.1% for PEOPLE against −6.1% for Bitcoin. PEOPLE had the worse day 88% of the time. The figures below start from PEOPLE's close on that day.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 38 | 58% | +0.8% | −1.9% to +4.3% | −0.1% | +0.9% | 56% | 23 |
| 3 days | 38 | 55% | +0.8% | −5.9% to +6.5% | −0.6% | +1.4% | 73% | 23 |
| 7 days | 38 | 42% | −2.7% | −9.3% to +5.2% | −1.3% | −1.4% | 89% | 21 |
| 14 days | 37 | 49% | −1.2% | −14.3% to +11.8% | −2.5% | +1.3% | 94% | 45 |
| 30 days | 37 | 46% | −3.1% | −23.5% to +13.5% | −5.5% | +2.4% | 95% | 20 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of PEOPLE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 56%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 22 the gap over 7 days was +2.0%, and in the later 16 it was −3.6%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | $0.00593 | +3.9% | −5.1% | open |
| 2 Jun 2026 | $0.00591 | +3.2% | −10.2% | −12.2% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | $0.00632 | +11.7% | +5.1% | +8.1% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | $0.00843 | −0.9% | −25.0% | −23.5% |
| 14 Nov 2025 | $0.01069 | +1.3% | −9.9% | −14.2% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.01142 | +0.2% | +2.8% | +9.8% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | $0.01128 | +6.6% | 0.0% | +18.3% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | $0.01955 | −7.9% | −24.8% | −33.4% |
| 7 Jan 2025 | $0.04224 | −9.2% | −7.6% | −56.8% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | $0.04910 | −12.4% | −7.4% | −11.6% |
| 27 Aug 2024 | $0.06666 | −2.6% | −12.9% | +9.9% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | $0.06317 | −8.9% | −4.8% | −6.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 41 are in the open data file.
The rule
Bitcoin's daily close is at least 5% below its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amp | 41 | 22% | −6.7% | −4.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Internet Computer | 50 | 36% | −7.1% | −5.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Oasis | 61 | 30% | −7.4% | −6.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 47 | 38% | −4.9% | −4.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 TRON | 94 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.8% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Injective | 62 | 37% | −4.9% | −4.9% | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 46 | 30% | −6.3% | −4.6% | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 38 | 26% | −6.7% | −5.0% | Weak evidence |
Bitcoin drops 5% in a day across all 94 coins
Other ConstitutionDAO signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals