Chiliz signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily CHZ candle since 6 Sep 2019 (2,627 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 16 signals did no better than picking days at random.
CHZ price · last close$0.0096714 Nov 2026 close: $0.00967 (7d −15.0%)
RSI (14)22.2under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.41×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume51.7%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility squeeze | 24 | 63% | +6.0% | −0.7% | 31% | 49 | Weak evidence | 13 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 28 | 36% | −3.4% | −0.7% | 72% | 44 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 28 | 54% | +4.7% | −0.7% | 37% | 24 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| Death cross | 10 | 20% | −5.6% | −0.7% | 69% | 24 | No better than chance | 11 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 52 | 52% | +1.0% | −0.7% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance | 12 Sep 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 41 | 49% | −2.0% | −0.7% | 87% | 23 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 62 | 48% | −1.5% | −0.7% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 77 | 44% | −2.0% | −0.7% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 15 Apr 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 68 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.7% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 53 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.7% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 44 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 55 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.7% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 19 | 63% | +4.9% | −0.7% | 49% | 20 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 33 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.7% | 86% | 19 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 24 | 50% | +1.1% | −0.7% | 86% | 15 | No better than chance | 10 Jan 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 23 | 57% | +1.5% | −0.7% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 26 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.7% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance | 19 Jul 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 24 | 54% | +0.4% | −0.7% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance | 9 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 44% | −2.4% | −0.7% | 68% | Too few cases | 19 Apr 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 7 days | 73 | 41% | −3.6% | −0.7% | 48% | 50 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 35 | 34% | −4.3% | −0.7% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Apr 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 14 | 64% | +8.4% | −0.7% | 27% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 38 | 39% | −2.5% | −0.7% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 71 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence | 23 Jun 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 132 | 46% | −1.4% | −0.7% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 107 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.7% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 12 | 42% | −2.9% | −0.7% | 88% | 35 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2021 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 32 | 59% | +4.6% | −0.7% | 36% | 26 | No better than chance | 9 Jul 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 128 | 55% | +1.3% | −0.7% | 52% | 24 | No better than chance | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 127 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 178 | 49% | −0.9% | −0.7% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 179 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.7% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 54 | 46% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 72 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.7% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 55 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 24 Jan 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 33 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.7% | 87% | 19 | No better than chance | 15 Apr 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 13 | 62% | +5.3% | −0.7% | 58% | 17 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 17 | 29% | −4.4% | −0.7% | 70% | 15 | No better than chance | 17 Jan 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 23 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 100% | 12 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 20 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.7% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 92 | 66% | +3.5% | −0.7% | 11% | 80 | Strong evidence · leans up | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 75 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.7% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 18 | 83% | +6.3% | −0.7% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 13 | 62% | +5.8% | −0.7% | 54% | 43 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.01088 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.01116 | −3.4% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.01116 | −3.4% |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.01185 | −8.2% |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.01185 | −8.2% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.01184 | −7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.01256 | −8.6% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.01205 | −7.4% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.01305 | −9.2% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.01406 | −7.2% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.01459 | −8.8% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.