After a 40% drop in 30 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,052 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence5 of 895 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance38 of 89coins
Scored cases2,052since 2017
The rule. Close at least 40% below the close 30 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Theta Network | 28 | 61% | +8.0% | −0.6% | +8.6% | 8.4% | 87 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 25 | 68% | +7.3% | −0.8% | +8.2% | 11% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Kava | 35 | 71% | +5.9% | −0.6% | +6.4% | 15% | 76 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 XRP | 17 | 65% | +7.3% | −0.8% | +8.0% | 12% | 75 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 TRON | 13 | 62% | +6.6% | +0.7% | +5.9% | 18% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up |
 BNB | 13 | 85% | +7.7% | +0.5% | +7.2% | 22% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 36 | 67% | +3.4% | −0.6% | +4.0% | 41% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 26 | 65% | +4.8% | −0.8% | +5.6% | 28% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 23 | 65% | +4.6% | −0.8% | +5.4% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 23 | 52% | +5.4% | −1.2% | +6.6% | 36% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 25 | 56% | +3.5% | −1.3% | +4.8% | 48% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 21 | 67% | +5.0% | −0.4% | +5.4% | 46% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 56 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.2% | −0.9% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 12 | 92% | +9.1% | −0.3% | +9.3% | 37% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 27 | 63% | +2.8% | −1.3% | +4.1% | 60% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 43 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 12 | 25% | −6.7% | −0.2% | −6.6% | 34% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 20 | 70% | +5.5% | +0.1% | +5.3% | 49% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 24 | 38% | −5.2% | −1.3% | −3.8% | 58% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 29 | 59% | +1.3% | −1.6% | +2.8% | 73% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 19 | 53% | +4.2% | −1.9% | +6.2% | 47% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 19 | 63% | +3.6% | −2.5% | +6.1% | 46% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 39 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 97% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 19 | 32% | −3.7% | −0.4% | −3.3% | 48% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 12 | 75% | +5.4% | −1.5% | +6.9% | 47% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 19 | 58% | +3.3% | −2.7% | +6.0% | 54% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 22 | 27% | −3.8% | −0.3% | −3.5% | 58% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 23 | 65% | +2.8% | +0.3% | +2.5% | 70% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 19 | 63% | +3.9% | −1.4% | +5.3% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 15 | 60% | +4.7% | −1.2% | +5.9% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 26 | 46% | −0.4% | −3.0% | +2.5% | 79% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 22 | 55% | +2.2% | −1.2% | +3.5% | 70% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 29 | 55% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 80% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 11 | 64% | +3.7% | −0.5% | +4.2% | 54% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 18 | 67% | +2.7% | −1.0% | +3.7% | 67% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 17 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.2% | −3.0% | 69% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 26 | 58% | +1.3% | −0.6% | +1.9% | 87% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 16 | 69% | +2.6% | −1.5% | +4.1% | 65% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +2.2% | +0.1% | +2.1% | 84% | 41 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 22 | 55% | +0.5% | −2.7% | +3.2% | 75% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 11 | 64% | +3.5% | −2.2% | +5.7% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 25 | 52% | +1.0% | −1.0% | +2.0% | 84% | 41 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 22 | 32% | −4.4% | −1.7% | −2.7% | 76% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 26 | 35% | −3.1% | −1.5% | −1.6% | 86% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 28 | 32% | −2.5% | −1.4% | −1.1% | 93% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 26 | 42% | −1.7% | −3.4% | +1.7% | 86% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 19 | 63% | +2.0% | −0.5% | +2.5% | 78% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 12 | 50% | +0.7% | −2.2% | +2.9% | 68% | 39 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 14 | 64% | +1.6% | −1.9% | +3.5% | 73% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 13 | 54% | +0.8% | −1.7% | +2.6% | 85% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 12 | 33% | −1.1% | +0.6% | −1.7% | 84% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 13 | 46% | −1.0% | −1.1% | +0.1% | 100% | 32 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 32 | 59% | +4.6% | −0.7% | +5.2% | 36% | 26 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 28 | 61% | +5.1% | −0.8% | +6.0% | 26% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 10 | 60% | +2.9% | −1.1% | +4.1% | 64% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 31 | 55% | +2.9% | −1.2% | +4.1% | 53% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 54 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.3% | +2.0% | 77% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 17 | 65% | +6.7% | −0.1% | +6.8% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 16 | 69% | +6.5% | −0.1% | +6.6% | 47% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 30 | 53% | +2.5% | −0.4% | +3.0% | 77% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 35 | 49% | −1.3% | −0.5% | −0.8% | 94% | 19 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 37 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.7% | +0.2% | 98% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 36 | 50% | −0.7% | −0.9% | +0.2% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 33 | 42% | −1.7% | −0.6% | −1.1% | 92% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 23 | 43% | −3.6% | −0.6% | −3.0% | 70% | 18 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 18 | 61% | +3.0% | −1.3% | +4.3% | 59% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 27 | 59% | +0.4% | −1.1% | +1.5% | 87% | 17 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 29 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.8% | +1.6% | 90% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 22 | 55% | +1.7% | −1.7% | +3.3% | 74% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 17 | 53% | +2.7% | −0.2% | +2.9% | 70% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 17 | 41% | −4.2% | −1.0% | −3.2% | 63% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 18 | 56% | +2.4% | −1.4% | +3.9% | 71% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 23 | 52% | +0.5% | −1.7% | +2.2% | 85% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 22 | 55% | +1.3% | −0.9% | +2.1% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 18 | 61% | +1.6% | −1.2% | +2.7% | 76% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 29 | 48% | −0.5% | −0.7% | +0.2% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 24 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.7% | +1.5% | 90% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 10 | 40% | −1.0% | −0.9% | −0.1% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 21 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.2% | +1.8% | 82% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 26 | 38% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +0.6% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 24 | 54% | +0.8% | −0.1% | +0.8% | 95% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 18 | 50% | +0.1% | −2.0% | +2.0% | 86% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 11 | 55% | +0.9% | −1.5% | +2.4% | 82% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 20 | 60% | +0.4% | −0.3% | +0.8% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 22 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.7% | +0.2% | 99% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 17 | 53% | +1.1% | −0.5% | +1.7% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 22 | 41% | −1.9% | −1.8% | −0.2% | 99% | 11 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 18 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.4% | +0.9% | 94% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 13 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.0% | −0.7% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 9 | 67% | +2.3% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 45% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 8 | 75% | +5.4% | −1.3% | +6.7% | 5.8% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 7 | 86% | +7.4% | −1.6% | +9.0% | 3.3% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 6 | 17% | −2.5% | −0.3% | −2.2% | 39% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 8 | 88% | +7.1% | −1.6% | +8.7% | 5.4% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.