Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume: does it work in crypto?
A steep fall on very heavy volume is the textbook picture of capitulation, when the last holders give up. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,261 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence1 of 750 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance45 of 75coins
Scored cases1,261since 2017
The rule. Daily close at least 7% below the previous close on volume at least 2.5× the previous 30-day average.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Request | 14 | 7% | −8.8% | −0.5% | −8.4% | 7.6% | 82 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Neo | 24 | 42% | −6.7% | −0.6% | −6.1% | 26% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 14 | 36% | −3.5% | +0.7% | −4.2% | 33% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 16 | 56% | +6.1% | −1.6% | +7.7% | 35% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 15 | 33% | −7.4% | −0.6% | −6.8% | 34% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 10 | 70% | +9.9% | −3.0% | +12.9% | 17% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 25 | 40% | −5.8% | −0.4% | −5.3% | 54% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 16 | 75% | +6.0% | −1.3% | +7.3% | 47% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 12 | 67% | +4.8% | −1.3% | +6.1% | 52% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 18 | 28% | −4.3% | −0.9% | −3.4% | 58% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 14 | 79% | +4.4% | −0.9% | +5.2% | 58% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 18 | 28% | −4.7% | −0.1% | −4.6% | 63% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 11 | 64% | +5.3% | −0.6% | +5.8% | 56% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 29 | 48% | −0.2% | −1.0% | +0.8% | 91% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 18 | 67% | +3.1% | −0.1% | +3.2% | 70% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 16 | 38% | −4.4% | −0.8% | −3.6% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 17 | 41% | −5.0% | −1.2% | −3.9% | 75% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 20 | 40% | −3.7% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 77% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 14 | 64% | +2.5% | −1.0% | +3.5% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 16 | 31% | −3.5% | −0.8% | −2.7% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 11 | 36% | −5.0% | −1.3% | −3.7% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 14 | 36% | −3.1% | −0.8% | −2.2% | 81% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 11 | 55% | +2.8% | −1.2% | +4.0% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 11 | 55% | +2.0% | −1.8% | +3.7% | 78% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 19 | 47% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.7% | 94% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 17 | 53% | +0.1% | −1.1% | +1.2% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 13 | 54% | +0.1% | −1.5% | +1.6% | 89% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 10 | 40% | −6.9% | +0.6% | −7.6% | 22% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 12 | 25% | −2.5% | −0.1% | −2.4% | 90% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 11 | 36% | −3.0% | −0.8% | −2.2% | 87% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 12 | 50% | +0.7% | −1.3% | +2.0% | 91% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 13 | 38% | −2.1% | −1.2% | −0.9% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 14 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.0% | +0.7% | 97% | 33 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 12 | 25% | −2.7% | −1.7% | −1.0% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 10 | 50% | −5.7% | −1.6% | −4.2% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 18 | 39% | −6.5% | −0.3% | −6.3% | 28% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 18 | 56% | +6.0% | −1.2% | +7.2% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +6.0% | +0.1% | +5.8% | 39% | 22 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 16 | 44% | −8.4% | −1.3% | −7.1% | 36% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 19 | 63% | +4.9% | −0.7% | +5.6% | 49% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 10 | 40% | −1.9% | −0.4% | −1.5% | 87% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 21 | 43% | −4.3% | −1.0% | −3.4% | 53% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 27 | 52% | +1.2% | −0.8% | +2.1% | 77% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 10 | 30% | −3.0% | −1.4% | −1.6% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 20 | 55% | +2.9% | −0.5% | +3.4% | 63% | 18 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 10 | 60% | +0.7% | −0.3% | +1.0% | 97% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 10 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.7% | +0.6% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 10 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.6% | +0.5% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 20 | 40% | −4.6% | −1.3% | −3.4% | 74% | 16 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 14 | 50% | +2.4% | −1.7% | +4.2% | 69% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 20 | 55% | +1.5% | −0.2% | +1.7% | 82% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 16 | 38% | −3.8% | −0.6% | −3.2% | 78% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 22 | 50% | −0.4% | +0.3% | −0.7% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 15 | 53% | +2.6% | −0.7% | +3.3% | 81% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 13 | 46% | −4.8% | −1.7% | −3.1% | 82% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 18 | 44% | −2.3% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 92% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 11 | 55% | +3.2% | −1.3% | +4.5% | 79% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 20 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.1% | +0.5% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 12 | 50% | +2.0% | −1.2% | +3.3% | 85% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 13 | 46% | −3.3% | −0.5% | −2.8% | 86% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 19 | 53% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.1% | 100% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 18 | 56% | +0.3% | −0.2% | +0.5% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 13 | 46% | −2.1% | −0.4% | −1.7% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 11 | 55% | +0.1% | −2.7% | +2.8% | 87% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 11 | 36% | −3.4% | −1.6% | −1.8% | 89% | 10 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 19 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 98% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 15 | 53% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +0.7% | 96% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 17 | 35% | −1.1% | −1.2% | +0.1% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 12 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.7% | +1.5% | 93% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 11 | 55% | +1.3% | −0.3% | +1.6% | 93% | 8 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 15 | 53% | +0.4% | +0.5% | −0.1% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 13 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 14 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.2% | 99% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 12 | 50% | −0.9% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 95% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 11 | 45% | −2.4% | −2.2% | −0.2% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 3 | 0% | −6.7% | −1.5% | −5.1% | 47% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 7 | 43% | −3.2% | −1.7% | −1.5% | 76% | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 8 | 63% | +4.8% | −1.4% | +6.2% | 23% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 4 | 75% | +7.1% | −1.5% | +8.6% | 19% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 7 | 71% | +13.9% | −1.3% | +15.2% | 0.3% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 5 | 20% | −4.1% | −2.7% | −1.4% | 84% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 6 | 67% | +4.7% | −2.2% | +7.0% | 22% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 3 | 67% | +23.7% | −0.3% | +24.0% | 2.1% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 4 | 25% | −9.5% | −0.5% | −8.9% | 23% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 9 | 33% | −2.5% | −1.9% | −0.5% | 93% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 4 | 25% | −6.9% | −2.0% | −4.9% | 43% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 7 | 14% | −7.9% | −2.5% | −5.4% | 34% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 6 | 67% | +1.1% | −0.3% | +1.4% | 56% | Too few cases | |
 Phala Network | 9 | 22% | −11.2% | −1.5% | −9.7% | 4.0% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 6 | 50% | +0.2% | −1.9% | +2.0% | 69% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Name Service | 6 | 67% | +1.3% | −1.1% | +2.4% | 63% | Too few cases | |
 Oasis | 9 | 67% | +4.7% | −1.4% | +6.1% | 25% | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 6 | 67% | +4.8% | −1.7% | +6.5% | 27% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 7 | 57% | +5.5% | −3.4% | +8.9% | 11% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.