Volume spike on a green day: does it work in crypto?
A surge of volume on an up day is usually read as fresh demand arriving, and as a sign that the move has backing. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 3,383 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence9 of 947 lean up · 2 lean down
No better than chance41 of 94coins
Scored cases3,383since 2017
The rule. Daily volume at least 3× its previous 30-day average, and the day closes above its open.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 54 | 30% | −4.7% | −0.9% | −3.9% | 16% | 73 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Cardano | 38 | 63% | +4.6% | −0.8% | +5.5% | 17% | 72 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Nexo | 16 | 81% | +4.8% | −0.3% | +5.1% | 14% | 69 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Ethereum | 25 | 64% | +6.3% | +0.3% | +6.0% | 18% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Request | 46 | 33% | −3.8% | −0.5% | −3.4% | 19% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down |
 THORChain | 26 | 62% | +9.7% | −0.3% | +10.1% | 7.0% | 64 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Solana | 25 | 64% | +7.9% | −0.3% | +8.2% | 21% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 22 | 86% | +4.8% | +0.5% | +4.3% | 22% | 56 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Immutable | 30 | 63% | +5.1% | −1.7% | +6.8% | 24% | 55 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Kava | 47 | 64% | +4.0% | −0.6% | +4.6% | 28% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 54 | 39% | −2.3% | +0.6% | −3.0% | 25% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 38 | 61% | +5.3% | −1.3% | +6.6% | 30% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 55 | 35% | −5.6% | −1.5% | −4.1% | 27% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 52 | 40% | −4.6% | −0.6% | −4.0% | 37% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 33 | 33% | −7.5% | −2.0% | −5.6% | 31% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 63 | 32% | −3.7% | −0.6% | −3.1% | 36% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 44 | 57% | +1.3% | −1.1% | +2.5% | 54% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 41 | 54% | +2.4% | −0.5% | +2.8% | 55% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 48 | 54% | +2.7% | −1.3% | +4.0% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 56 | 34% | −3.0% | −0.3% | −2.7% | 44% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 42 | 60% | +2.1% | −0.8% | +2.9% | 58% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 47 | 30% | −5.0% | −1.7% | −3.3% | 55% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 34 | 59% | +3.9% | −0.6% | +4.6% | 54% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 41 | 39% | −3.9% | −1.2% | −2.6% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 34 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.5% | −2.8% | 53% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 31 | 55% | +4.2% | −0.5% | +4.8% | 49% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 45 | 31% | −3.5% | −1.6% | −2.0% | 79% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 55 | 35% | −3.5% | −2.2% | −1.2% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 49 | 57% | +1.4% | −0.6% | +2.0% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 36 | 36% | −2.2% | −0.2% | −2.0% | 69% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 17 | 29% | −9.2% | −0.5% | −8.7% | 33% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 43 | 44% | −2.8% | −1.3% | −1.5% | 86% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 52 | 40% | −2.7% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 53 | 53% | +0.5% | −0.4% | +0.8% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 51 | 41% | −2.2% | −0.8% | −1.3% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 57 | 51% | +0.6% | −0.1% | +0.7% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 35 | 34% | −4.4% | −1.8% | −2.6% | 72% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 44 | 39% | −1.7% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 38 | 34% | −3.0% | −1.6% | −1.4% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 38 | 47% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 52 | 46% | −0.5% | −1.0% | +0.5% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 36 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.3% | +1.6% | 82% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 29 | 41% | −1.6% | +0.5% | −2.0% | 67% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 19 | 68% | +6.3% | −0.3% | +6.5% | 51% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 33 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.3% | +1.4% | 90% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 35 | 46% | −0.8% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 28 | 54% | +1.1% | −1.2% | +2.3% | 79% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 12 | 33% | −8.9% | −1.9% | −6.9% | 52% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 20 | 30% | −7.0% | −3.4% | −3.6% | 70% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 18 | 67% | +2.0% | −1.4% | +3.4% | 76% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 14 | 36% | −7.9% | −2.7% | −5.2% | 68% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 18 | 50% | +0.7% | −1.7% | +2.5% | 82% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 14 | 57% | +1.9% | −1.5% | +3.4% | 76% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 47 | 40% | −4.4% | −0.1% | −4.3% | 46% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 61 | 39% | −4.5% | −1.2% | −3.4% | 31% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 51 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 80% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 52 | 52% | +1.0% | −0.7% | +1.7% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 45 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.2% | −1.4% | 87% | 23 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 48 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 40 | 50% | +1.1% | +0.1% | +1.0% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 28 | 54% | +1.7% | −1.3% | +3.0% | 49% | 22 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 31 | 42% | −0.8% | +0.7% | −1.5% | 68% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 36 | 56% | +1.1% | −0.4% | +1.6% | 86% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 48 | 44% | −1.5% | −0.9% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 39 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.7% | +0.8% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 29 | 52% | +2.5% | −1.2% | +3.6% | 65% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 53 | 49% | −0.8% | −0.6% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 45 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 19 | 32% | −9.3% | −2.7% | −6.5% | 49% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 46 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 47 | 43% | −1.2% | −1.3% | +0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 39 | 46% | −1.5% | −1.4% | −0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 39 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.2% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 29 | 55% | +1.5% | −0.7% | +2.2% | 77% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 31 | 55% | +1.1% | −0.9% | +2.0% | 80% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 37 | 51% | +0.4% | +0.1% | +0.2% | 98% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 37 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.0% | +0.4% | 98% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 32 | 44% | −1.1% | −0.2% | −0.8% | 92% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 36 | 47% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.1% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 30 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.7% | +1.4% | 88% | 18 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 23 | 22% | −4.4% | −1.7% | −2.7% | 77% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 31 | 42% | −1.0% | −1.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 29 | 41% | −0.8% | −0.2% | −0.6% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 22 | 50% | +0.8% | −1.3% | +2.1% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 29 | 38% | −1.3% | −1.6% | +0.3% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 29 | 34% | −1.3% | −1.1% | −0.2% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 23 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.4% | −0.7% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 19 | 53% | +0.1% | −1.0% | +1.1% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 18 | 44% | −3.1% | −1.5% | −1.6% | 91% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 23 | 39% | −3.2% | −3.0% | −0.2% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 24 | 46% | −2.0% | −1.9% | −0.1% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 19 | 47% | −1.3% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 19 | 47% | −1.4% | −1.7% | +0.3% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 17 | 47% | −2.5% | −2.5% | 0.0% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.