Algorand signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ALGO candle since 22 Jun 2019 (2,703 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ALGO price · last close$0.0776014 Nov 2026 close: $0.07760 (7d −18.7%)
RSI (14)26.9under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.50×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume48.9%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 23 | 65% | +11.4% | −1.0% | 3.8% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans up | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 41 | 63% | +3.8% | −1.0% | 30% | 54 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 29 | 59% | +5.5% | −1.0% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 39 | 31% | −4.3% | −1.0% | 57% | 51 | Weak evidence | 19 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 58 | 45% | −3.0% | −1.0% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 61 | 54% | +1.1% | −1.0% | 69% | 49 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 35 | 37% | −4.0% | −1.0% | 66% | 48 | Weak evidence | 25 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 74 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.0% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 34 | 56% | +0.8% | −1.0% | 82% | 46 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 25 | 36% | −5.0% | −1.0% | 60% | 45 | Weak evidence | 24 Jul 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 14 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 97% | 33 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 45 | 44% | −4.0% | −1.0% | 59% | 26 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 59 | 46% | −1.5% | −1.0% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 37 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 98% | 19 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 23 | 65% | +1.7% | −1.0% | 77% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 21 | 52% | +1.1% | −1.0% | 86% | 15 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 23 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.0% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 44% | −3.4% | −1.0% | 61% | Too few cases | 3 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 63% | +1.8% | −1.0% | 55% | Too few cases | 24 Jun 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 3 days | 41 | 37% | −5.3% | −1.0% | 41% | 53 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 13 | 62% | +8.9% | −1.0% | 22% | 52 | Weak evidence | 9 Mar 2025 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 64 | 56% | +1.7% | −1.0% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 67 | 40% | −3.0% | −1.0% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 117 | 43% | −2.6% | −1.0% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 83 | 51% | +0.2% | −1.0% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 132 | 49% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 40 | 45% | −2.0% | −1.0% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 128 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.0% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 182 | 47% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 25 | 40% | −5.6% | −1.0% | 52% | 46 | Weak evidence | 3 Apr 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 25 | 52% | +1.0% | −1.0% | 84% | 41 | Weak evidence | 24 Feb 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 11 | 36% | −6.5% | −1.0% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence | 13 Dec 2024 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 48 | 42% | −4.1% | −1.0% | 55% | 26 | No better than chance | 3 Jun 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 187 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 84% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 126 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.0% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 29 | 52% | +1.1% | −1.0% | 82% | 19 | No better than chance | 3 Apr 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 17 | 53% | +1.5% | −1.0% | 84% | 13 | No better than chance | 10 Mar 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 15 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.0% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 11 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.0% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2020 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 8 | 75% | +5.9% | −1.0% | 15% | Too few cases | 3 Apr 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 78 | 53% | +1.7% | −1.0% | 49% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 95 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.0% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 14 | 71% | +7.4% | −1.0% | 28% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.0% | 91% | 12 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.09090 | open |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.09530 | +0.2% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.09330 | −1.6% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.1049 | −10.3% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1061 | −10.0% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.1100 | −3.9% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.