THORChain · RUNE/USDT · daily
What happens to THORChain after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day?
Since 2020, THORChain has shown Bitcoin drops 5% in a day 62 times. In the 62 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 37% of the time, with a median move of −2.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for RUNE is −0.3%.
Weak evidence49
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 70% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
On the day itself, the median move was −10.2% for RUNE against −6.2% for Bitcoin. RUNE had the worse day 81% of the time. The figures below start from RUNE's close on that day.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 62 | 39% | −0.8% | −5.5% to +1.8% | −0.1% | −0.7% | 57% | 48 |
| 3 days | 62 | 45% | −0.5% | −11.1% to +5.8% | −0.1% | −0.4% | 91% | 46 |
| 7 days | 62 | 37% | −2.6% | −11.3% to +6.8% | −0.3% | −2.2% | 70% | 49 |
| 14 days | 61 | 49% | −0.1% | −21.3% to +14.7% | −1.1% | +1.0% | 94% | 46 |
| 30 days | 61 | 38% | −11.6% | −31.7% to +11.4% | −2.1% | −9.5% | 59% | 51 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of RUNE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 25%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 37 the gap over 7 days was −2.1%, and in the later 25 it was −2.9%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | $0.6020 | −3.0% | −4.0% | open |
| 2 Jun 2026 | $0.3880 | +1.5% | +1.0% | +3.1% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | $0.3790 | +10.8% | +3.2% | +10.6% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | $0.5260 | −1.9% | −27.9% | −24.0% |
| 14 Nov 2025 | $0.7170 | +2.4% | −12.6% | −11.9% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.8630 | −0.1% | −2.9% | −4.5% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | $1.04 | −0.4% | +9.4% | +24.2% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | $1.27 | −5.9% | −19.9% | −12.2% |
| 7 Jan 2025 | $4.40 | −9.5% | −27.1% | −71.5% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | $5.84 | −11.0% | −11.4% | −30.8% |
| 27 Aug 2024 | $3.96 | +1.4% | −2.6% | +35.8% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | $3.71 | −6.1% | −12.8% | +3.0% |
The 12 most recent. All 62 are in the open data file.
The rule
Bitcoin's daily close is at least 5% below its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amp | 41 | 22% | −6.7% | −4.5% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Internet Computer | 50 | 36% | −7.1% | −5.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Oasis | 61 | 30% | −7.4% | −6.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 47 | 38% | −4.9% | −4.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 TRON | 94 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.8% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Injective | 62 | 37% | −4.9% | −4.9% | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 46 | 30% | −6.3% | −4.6% | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 38 | 26% | −6.7% | −5.0% | Weak evidence |
Bitcoin drops 5% in a day across all 94 coins
Other THORChain signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals