THORChain signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily RUNE candle since 4 Sep 2020 (2,263 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 14 signals did no better than picking days at random.
RUNE price · last close$0.508014 Nov 2026 close: $0.5080 (7d −13.3%)
RSI (14)32.5between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.26×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume48.1%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%above the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a green day | 26 | 62% | +9.7% | −0.3% | 7.0% | 64 | Some evidence · leans up | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 61 | 34% | −4.6% | −0.3% | 34% | 52 | Weak evidence | 1 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 22 | 64% | +2.9% | −0.3% | 75% | 41 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 14 | 64% | +1.0% | −0.3% | 94% | 34 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 30 | 60% | +5.2% | −0.3% | 38% | 24 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 35 | 46% | −2.9% | −0.3% | 75% | 22 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 52 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 52 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 88 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 46 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 43 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.3% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 26 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 31 | 55% | +1.6% | −0.3% | 85% | 19 | No better than chance | 4 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 33 | 52% | +1.2% | −0.3% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance | 12 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 10 | 60% | +0.7% | −0.3% | 97% | 17 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 32 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.3% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 23 | 57% | +2.2% | −0.3% | 81% | 16 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 22 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.3% | 97% | 12 | No better than chance | 10 Aug 2026 |
| Golden cross | 7 | 29% | −9.5% | −0.3% | 13% | Too few cases | 24 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 7 | 29% | −9.6% | −0.3% | 13% | Too few cases | 2 Sep 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% rise in 30 days | 22 | 68% | +8.7% | −0.3% | 18% | 66 | Some evidence · leans up | 12 Mar 2024 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 128 | 42% | −3.4% | −0.3% | 28% | 50 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 19 | 63% | +8.3% | −0.3% | 29% | 49 | Weak evidence | 12 May 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 21 | 62% | +7.1% | −0.3% | 34% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Feb 2025 |
| 7% rise in a day | 131 | 46% | −2.1% | −0.3% | 63% | 48 | Weak evidence | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 69 | 45% | −2.0% | −0.3% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence | 30 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 84 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.3% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 39 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.3% | 97% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 176 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 16 | 75% | +5.3% | −0.3% | 57% | 42 | Weak evidence | 1 Feb 2025 |
| 15% rise in a day | 43 | 56% | +3.5% | −0.3% | 53% | 26 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 45 | 42% | −3.2% | −0.3% | 64% | 25 | No better than chance | 30 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 116 | 43% | −2.5% | −0.3% | 55% | 24 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 50 | 48% | −1.7% | −0.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 56 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 3 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 167 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 62 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 67 | 49% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 11 Jun 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 111 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 33 | 48% | 0.0% | −0.3% | 99% | 17 | No better than chance | 16 May 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 25 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 98% | 13 | No better than chance | 15 May 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 57% | +3.2% | −0.3% | 36% | 51 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 37% | −2.6% | −0.3% | 70% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 55% | +1.0% | −0.3% | 95% | 33 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 46% | −0.5% | −0.3% | 100% | 7 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.6400 | −7.5% |
| 3 Nov 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.6320 | −5.4% |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.6320 | −5.4% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.5530 | +3.6% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.6340 | −0.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.