When Bitcoin drops 5% in a day: what each coin did next
We counted every time it happened on 93 major coins, 5,335 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence5 of 930 lean up · 5 lean down
No better than chance32 of 93coins
Scored cases5,335since 2017
The rule. Bitcoin's daily close is at least 5% below its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amp | 41 | 22% | −6.7% | −2.2% | −4.5% | 8.8% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Internet Computer | 50 | 36% | −7.1% | −1.3% | −5.8% | 10% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Oasis | 61 | 30% | −7.4% | −1.4% | −6.0% | 12% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 47 | 38% | −4.9% | −0.5% | −4.4% | 5.1% | 73 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 TRON | 94 | 45% | −1.2% | +0.7% | −1.8% | 17% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Injective | 62 | 37% | −4.9% | −0.1% | −4.9% | 29% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 46 | 30% | −6.3% | −1.7% | −4.6% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 38 | 26% | −6.7% | −1.7% | −5.0% | 32% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 62 | 35% | −4.2% | −1.1% | −3.1% | 38% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 35 | 34% | −6.5% | −1.7% | −4.8% | 34% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 47 | 30% | −4.4% | −0.9% | −3.5% | 49% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 62 | 39% | −2.2% | −0.4% | −1.9% | 43% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 62 | 45% | −3.4% | −0.7% | −2.7% | 52% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 78 | 53% | +1.7% | −1.0% | +2.7% | 49% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 60 | 42% | −4.3% | −1.8% | −2.5% | 62% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 48 | 33% | −4.2% | −1.5% | −2.7% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 62 | 37% | −3.4% | −0.4% | −3.0% | 62% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 48 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.7% | −2.6% | 67% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 94 | 39% | −2.6% | −1.0% | −1.6% | 49% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 73 | 55% | +1.5% | −0.6% | +2.1% | 57% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 48 | 38% | −2.7% | −1.3% | −1.4% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 57 | 39% | −3.2% | −0.8% | −2.4% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 50 | 40% | −3.1% | −1.5% | −1.6% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 62 | 47% | −2.8% | −0.5% | −2.2% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 62 | 47% | −0.7% | +0.6% | −1.3% | 70% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 46 | 33% | −5.0% | −3.0% | −2.0% | 78% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 62 | 37% | −2.6% | −0.3% | −2.2% | 70% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 48 | 38% | −3.5% | −1.2% | −2.4% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 59 | 37% | −3.2% | −1.3% | −1.9% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 115 | 44% | −1.0% | +0.3% | −1.3% | 61% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 78 | 41% | −2.0% | −1.0% | −1.0% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 62 | 39% | −2.3% | −1.0% | −1.3% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 62 | 42% | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.7% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 62 | 42% | −2.0% | −0.1% | −2.0% | 74% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 83 | 41% | −1.6% | +0.1% | −1.7% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 83 | 41% | −1.7% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 50 | 38% | −3.1% | −1.2% | −1.8% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 62 | 37% | −2.9% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 42 | 40% | −2.3% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 87% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 62 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.4% | −0.9% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 95 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.1% | +0.6% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 57 | 39% | −1.8% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 55 | 40% | −2.5% | −1.6% | −1.0% | 92% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 75 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.7% | +1.3% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 92 | 46% | −1.7% | −0.8% | −0.9% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 84 | 56% | +0.8% | −0.1% | +0.9% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 110 | 45% | −1.6% | −0.6% | −1.0% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 108 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.2% | +0.2% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 74 | 41% | −1.7% | −1.2% | −0.5% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 62 | 44% | −1.1% | −1.2% | +0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 62 | 47% | −1.3% | −1.3% | +0.1% | 100% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 30 | 33% | −3.5% | −1.4% | −2.1% | 82% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 21 | 19% | −5.4% | −1.4% | −4.0% | 69% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 31 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 94% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 18 | 39% | −5.3% | −0.5% | −4.8% | 62% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 25 | 40% | −3.4% | −1.6% | −1.8% | 80% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 21 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.7% | −2.6% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 20 | 35% | −5.8% | −2.5% | −3.3% | 75% | 41 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 21 | 29% | −4.5% | −1.9% | −2.6% | 75% | 40 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 19 | 42% | −4.6% | −2.7% | −1.9% | 89% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 19 | 37% | −3.9% | −2.2% | −1.7% | 91% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 80 | 55% | +2.2% | −1.3% | +3.5% | 39% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 62 | 47% | −2.4% | −0.3% | −2.0% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 48 | 46% | −2.2% | −0.3% | −1.9% | 69% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 45 | 44% | −2.2% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 77% | 24 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 61 | 46% | −2.1% | −0.4% | −1.7% | 73% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 73 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 73 | 44% | −2.0% | −0.6% | −1.3% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 63 | 48% | −1.8% | −0.7% | −1.1% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 61 | 41% | −2.3% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 69 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.3% | +1.4% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 71 | 51% | +0.4% | −0.6% | +1.0% | 84% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 38 | 42% | −3.4% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 97 | 44% | −1.0% | −0.8% | −0.2% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 85 | 49% | −0.3% | +0.1% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 24 | 33% | −5.9% | −1.5% | −4.4% | 52% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 84 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 38 | 42% | −2.7% | −1.3% | −1.4% | 89% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 83 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.3% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 74 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.3% | +0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 95 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 112 | 54% | +0.4% | +0.5% | 0.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 98 | 49% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 82 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.9% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 20 | 45% | −5.2% | −0.3% | −4.9% | 64% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 32 | 41% | −0.6% | −0.3% | −0.3% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 21 | 38% | −4.2% | −1.5% | −2.7% | 78% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 22 | 45% | −1.9% | −0.2% | −1.7% | 78% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 19 | 47% | −0.1% | −2.7% | +2.6% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 24 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.6% | +0.8% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 19 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.9% | +1.3% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 19 | 42% | −3.3% | −2.0% | −1.4% | 92% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 19 | 32% | −2.3% | −3.4% | +1.1% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.