Terra Classic signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily LUNC candle since 9 Sep 2022 (1,528 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 11 signals did no better than picking days at random.
LUNC price · last close$0.0000338914 Nov 2026 close: $0.00003389 (7d −16.0%)
RSI (14)19.7under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.73×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume43.3%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−95%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a red day | 17 | 71% | +4.6% | −1.6% | 26% | 49 | Weak evidence | 3 May 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 21 | 71% | +3.4% | −1.6% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 28 | 36% | −5.2% | −1.6% | 45% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 17 | 65% | +3.6% | −1.6% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence | 19 Jul 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 12 | 42% | −8.8% | −1.6% | 25% | 46 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 16 | 38% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 99% | 34 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 42 | 43% | −2.9% | −1.6% | 80% | 24 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 38 | 42% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 10 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.6% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 26 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.6% | 80% | 18 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 29 | 38% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 19 | 53% | +0.6% | −1.6% | 78% | 15 | No better than chance | 15 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 17 | 53% | +0.2% | −1.6% | 85% | 13 | No better than chance | 4 Mar 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 11 | 27% | −3.2% | −1.6% | 91% | 10 | No better than chance | 26 Mar 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 11 | 36% | −3.4% | −1.6% | 89% | 10 | No better than chance | 22 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 19 | 42% | −1.6% | −1.6% | 100% | 10 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Golden cross | 3 | 100% | +4.6% | −1.6% | 28% | Too few cases | 17 Apr 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 67% | +13.6% | −1.6% | 3.6% | Too few cases | 17 Aug 2026 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 8 | 75% | +12.5% | −1.6% | 0.1% | Too few cases | 30 Apr 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 7 days | 24 | 25% | −9.0% | −1.6% | 4.6% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 38 | 55% | +1.2% | −1.6% | 50% | 51 | Weak evidence | 24 Jun 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 51 | 35% | −3.4% | −1.6% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence | 22 Aug 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 74 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.6% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 14 | 43% | −8.3% | −1.6% | 25% | 48 | Weak evidence | 2 May 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 46 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.6% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 84 | 37% | −2.5% | −1.6% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 24 | 63% | +2.0% | −1.6% | 48% | 47 | Weak evidence | 3 Jun 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 10 | 70% | +2.3% | −1.6% | 67% | 25 | No better than chance | 14 May 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 48 | 35% | −1.0% | −1.6% | 94% | 22 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 51 | 47% | −2.0% | −1.6% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 33 | 39% | −2.7% | −1.6% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 17 | 47% | −2.6% | −1.6% | 94% | 11 | No better than chance | 24 May 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 17 | 35% | −1.8% | −1.6% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 9 | 44% | −3.4% | −1.6% | 62% | Too few cases | 6 May 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 5 | 60% | +10.6% | −1.6% | 2.4% | Too few cases | 13 Dec 2025 | |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 7 | 86% | +7.4% | −1.6% | 3.3% | Too few cases | 4 Jun 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 1 | 100% | +9.2% | −1.6% | – | Too few cases | 3 Jan 2024 | |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 9 | 44% | −9.2% | −1.6% | 3.1% | Too few cases | 3 May 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 6 | 50% | +1.5% | −1.6% | 43% | Too few cases | 4 May 2026 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 6 | 50% | −5.7% | −1.6% | 30% | Too few cases | 7 May 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 35 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.6% | 77% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 25 | 40% | −3.4% | −1.6% | 80% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 2 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.6% | 88% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 5 | 60% | +6.4% | −1.6% | 9.1% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00003889 | open |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00004099 | −4.7% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00004242 | −8.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.00004266 | −6.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00004446 | −4.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.