Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control: does it work in crypto?
When the average trade gets unusually large, bigger players are active. Here they are active while market buys outweigh market sells. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,886 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence0 of 930 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance50 of 93coins
Scored cases2,886since 2017
The rule. Average trade size in the top 5% of the previous 180 days, with the share of volume from market buys above 50%.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dash | 40 | 38% | −4.5% | −0.5% | −4.1% | 32% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 40 | 40% | −4.7% | −0.6% | −4.0% | 35% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 46 | 39% | −3.4% | −0.2% | −3.2% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 34 | 59% | +4.1% | −1.3% | +5.4% | 28% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 48 | 58% | +2.5% | −0.8% | +3.3% | 39% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 44 | 34% | −4.3% | −0.6% | −3.7% | 51% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 54 | 30% | −3.6% | −1.0% | −2.6% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 36 | 28% | −4.7% | −2.2% | −2.4% | 49% | 50 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 25 | 24% | −8.6% | −1.7% | −6.9% | 25% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 36 | 44% | −2.9% | −0.3% | −2.6% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 49 | 55% | +1.4% | −0.6% | +2.0% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 59 | 54% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +0.8% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 59 | 49% | 0.0% | +0.7% | −0.7% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 59 | 42% | −2.4% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 35 | 37% | −4.0% | −1.0% | −3.0% | 66% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 24 | 42% | −7.6% | −1.3% | −6.4% | 37% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 19 | 32% | −5.0% | −0.5% | −4.5% | 32% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 29 | 24% | −3.2% | −0.4% | −2.8% | 42% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 30 | 60% | +2.4% | −0.7% | +3.1% | 63% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 16 | 6% | −8.7% | −1.7% | −7.0% | 36% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 35 | 57% | +0.6% | −1.3% | +1.9% | 84% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 21 | 62% | +3.8% | −1.1% | +4.9% | 49% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 32 | 56% | +0.7% | −0.9% | +1.6% | 78% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 23 | 30% | −5.3% | −1.3% | −4.0% | 59% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 25 | 64% | +3.2% | −0.7% | +3.9% | 65% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 23 | 35% | −5.2% | −1.6% | −3.6% | 68% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 18 | 33% | −6.6% | −1.3% | −5.3% | 57% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 29 | 41% | −2.4% | −0.4% | −2.0% | 87% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 21 | 29% | −5.4% | −1.2% | −4.3% | 65% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 15 | 60% | +3.5% | −1.5% | +5.0% | 59% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 23 | 39% | −4.1% | −0.5% | −3.5% | 71% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 21 | 57% | +0.6% | −3.0% | +3.6% | 71% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 21 | 24% | −4.1% | −1.3% | −2.7% | 78% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 19 | 37% | −3.7% | −0.3% | −3.4% | 79% | 40 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 20 | 50% | +0.7% | −1.9% | +2.6% | 76% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 13 | 62% | +4.2% | −0.5% | +4.7% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 28 | 32% | −1.8% | −1.7% | −0.1% | 99% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 24 | 38% | −2.7% | −1.5% | −1.2% | 91% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 14 | 21% | −5.0% | −1.6% | −3.4% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 21 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.4% | +1.4% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 15 | 33% | −5.2% | −2.7% | −2.5% | 87% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 16 | 31% | −3.4% | −2.0% | −1.4% | 92% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 13 | 23% | −4.2% | −1.9% | −2.2% | 90% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 11 | 64% | +0.7% | −1.4% | +2.1% | 92% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 10 | 30% | −11.1% | −2.7% | −8.4% | 52% | 28 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 40 | 55% | +3.7% | −0.3% | +4.0% | 48% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 44 | 39% | −2.9% | −0.9% | −2.0% | 73% | 24 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 32 | 44% | −2.0% | +0.6% | −2.6% | 49% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 77 | 48% | −0.9% | +0.3% | −1.2% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 52 | 44% | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.6% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 53 | 53% | +0.7% | −0.8% | +1.5% | 77% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 40 | 50% | +0.4% | −0.6% | +0.9% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 37 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.0% | −0.8% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 46 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.0% | +0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 55 | 44% | −0.6% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 41 | 44% | −1.3% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 34 | 47% | −2.7% | −0.4% | −2.3% | 76% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 43 | 49% | −0.5% | +0.1% | −0.6% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 44 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.2% | −0.5% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 40 | 43% | −0.8% | −0.1% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 68 | 51% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 52 | 44% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 40 | 48% | −1.0% | −0.8% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 32 | 53% | +0.6% | −0.3% | +0.9% | 80% | 20 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 43 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.3% | +0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 37 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 97% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 33 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.7% | +1.6% | 86% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 10 | 40% | −5.5% | −3.4% | −2.0% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 28 | 57% | +2.1% | −0.1% | +2.2% | 82% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 31 | 45% | −0.7% | −1.5% | +0.8% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 33 | 42% | −2.1% | −1.2% | −0.9% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 21 | 43% | −4.8% | −1.7% | −3.1% | 71% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 30 | 47% | −0.3% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 94% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 27 | 63% | +1.5% | +0.1% | +1.3% | 90% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 26 | 42% | −2.8% | −1.2% | −1.6% | 89% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 28 | 46% | −2.6% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 17 | 41% | −3.1% | −0.2% | −3.0% | 62% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 29 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 19 | 47% | −3.4% | −0.8% | −2.6% | 73% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 21 | 38% | −3.1% | −1.2% | −1.9% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 22 | 41% | −3.9% | −1.7% | −2.2% | 85% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 25 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.1% | −0.6% | 96% | 14 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 25 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.0% | 94% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 23 | 43% | −2.1% | −0.9% | −1.2% | 92% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 26 | 42% | −1.0% | −1.3% | +0.3% | 98% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 19 | 42% | −0.5% | −2.2% | +1.7% | 90% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 25 | 48% | −1.6% | −1.4% | −0.2% | 99% | 13 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 26 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.4% | +0.1% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 23 | 39% | −1.2% | −1.5% | +0.3% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 22 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 16 | 38% | −3.4% | −1.8% | −1.7% | 91% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 20 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 11 | 27% | −3.2% | −1.6% | −1.6% | 91% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 7 | 43% | −2.9% | −2.5% | −0.3% | 96% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.