Arweave · AR/USDT · daily
What happens to Arweave after large-trade buying?
Since 2021, Arweave has shown large-trade buying 30 times. In the 30 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 47% of the time, with a median move of −0.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AR is −1.2%.
No better than chance17
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 94% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 30 | 47% | −0.5% | −3.9% to +3.0% | −0.3% | −0.2% | 94% | 16 |
| 3 days | 30 | 43% | −4.8% | −8.1% to +4.1% | −0.8% | −4.1% | 20% | 36 |
| 7 days | 30 | 47% | −0.3% | −13.4% to +13.5% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 94% | 17 |
| 14 days | 30 | 40% | −8.8% | −20.4% to +12.1% | −3.1% | −5.7% | 62% | 21 |
| 30 days | 30 | 50% | −0.3% | −22.8% to +11.0% | −6.2% | +5.9% | 79% | 45 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AR over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 72%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 18 the gap over 7 days was −8.3%, and in the later 12 it was +5.3%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2026 | $1.84 | +4.3% | +42.9% | +28.3% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | $1.81 | −3.9% | +15.5% | +27.1% |
| 15 Mar 2026 | $1.84 | +4.9% | −9.8% | −5.4% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | $1.57 | +1.3% | +17.2% | +12.1% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | $1.62 | 0.0% | +3.1% | +3.7% |
| 19 Aug 2025 | $6.68 | +4.5% | −0.4% | +7.8% |
| 20 Jul 2025 | $8.68 | −3.5% | −9.1% | −23.0% |
| 30 Nov 2024 | $25.67 | −2.0% | +5.0% | −33.9% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | $21.70 | +1.5% | +18.3% | −21.6% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | $18.96 | −7.9% | +14.5% | +13.3% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | $18.05 | +0.8% | −9.8% | +49.4% |
| 4 Jun 2024 | $46.28 | −4.5% | −28.3% | −51.4% |
The 12 most recent. All 30 are in the open data file.
The rule
Average trade size in the top 5% of the previous 180 days, with the share of volume from market buys above 50%. When the average trade gets unusually large, bigger players are active. Here they are active while market buys outweigh market sells.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dash | 40 | 38% | −4.5% | −4.1% | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 40 | 40% | −4.7% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 46 | 39% | −3.4% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 34 | 59% | +4.1% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 48 | 58% | +2.5% | +3.3% | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 44 | 34% | −4.3% | −3.7% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 54 | 30% | −3.6% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 36 | 28% | −4.7% | −2.4% | Weak evidence |
Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control across all 94 coins
Other Arweave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
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