Kava · KAVA/USDT · daily
What happens to Kava after extreme sell pressure?
Since 2019, Kava has shown extreme sell pressure 62 times. In the 61 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 46% of the time, with a median move of −1.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for KAVA is −0.6%.
Weak evidence46
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 93% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 62 | 56% | +0.6% | −2.8% to +3.3% | +0.1% | +0.5% | 58% | 23 |
| 3 days | 62 | 44% | −0.5% | −3.9% to +3.7% | −0.1% | −0.5% | 87% | 21 |
| 7 days | 61 | 46% | −1.2% | −7.6% to +3.5% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 93% | 46 |
| 14 days | 61 | 41% | −2.8% | −12.4% to +6.8% | −1.7% | −1.1% | 93% | 47 |
| 30 days | 60 | 40% | −5.0% | −22.1% to +11.9% | −4.8% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of KAVA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 68%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 36 the gap over 7 days was −0.1%, and in the later 25 it was −0.6%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | $0.06793 | +0.8% | open | open |
| 26 Oct 2026 | $0.06945 | +0.5% | −2.1% | open |
| 20 Sep 2026 | $0.07237 | −2.1% | −5.4% | −2.5% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | $0.04633 | −1.9% | +10.4% | +47.7% |
| 21 Jul 2026 | $0.04612 | −1.0% | −2.2% | −8.5% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | $0.04491 | +2.6% | +2.7% | −9.8% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | $0.04175 | +4.1% | +5.7% | +2.6% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | $0.04785 | −3.2% | −4.4% | −6.6% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | $0.05588 | −5.2% | −22.0% | −22.2% |
| 22 May 2026 | $0.05934 | +2.2% | −4.9% | −19.0% |
| 11 May 2026 | $0.06815 | −4.7% | −15.5% | −37.8% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | $0.05150 | +5.5% | +4.8% | +20.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 62 are in the open data file.
The rule
Share of volume from market buys in the bottom 3% of the previous 180 days. Market sell orders taking an unusually large share of volume means sellers are hitting bids to get out rather than waiting.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uniswap | 52 | 33% | −5.3% | −4.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Quant | 47 | 34% | −3.7% | −2.3% | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 53 | 32% | −7.0% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 66 | 35% | −3.5% | −2.7% | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 54 | 37% | −4.5% | −3.3% | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 65 | 42% | −3.8% | −3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 35 | 54% | +1.2% | +4.6% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 90 | 46% | −1.1% | −1.5% | Weak evidence |
Extreme sell pressure across all 94 coins
Other Kava signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals