Celestia · TIA/USDT · daily
What happens to Celestia after extreme sell pressure?
Since 2023, Celestia has shown extreme sell pressure 24 times. In the 24 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 42% of the time, with a median move of −3.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for TIA is −2.7%.
No better than chance13
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 95% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 24 | 29% | −1.0% | −4.9% to +1.3% | −0.5% | −0.5% | 81% | 14 |
| 3 days | 24 | 42% | −1.7% | −9.2% to +6.4% | −1.5% | −0.2% | 98% | 12 |
| 7 days | 24 | 42% | −3.5% | −12.6% to +4.4% | −2.7% | −0.8% | 95% | 13 |
| 14 days | 24 | 25% | −8.6% | −23.0% to +2.7% | −5.0% | −3.6% | 87% | 41 |
| 30 days | 24 | 29% | −13.6% | −31.2% to +2.9% | −8.8% | −4.9% | 85% | 16 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of TIA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 78%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 14 the gap over 7 days was +1.6%, and in the later 10 it was −2.8%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | $0.4948 | −0.4% | −9.6% | +7.6% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | $0.3082 | −2.3% | +28.1% | +14.0% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | $0.3204 | 0.0% | +1.9% | +1.3% |
| 24 Jul 2026 | $0.3397 | −0.1% | −5.7% | +12.1% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | $0.3978 | −4.9% | −12.3% | −24.3% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | $0.3120 | +3.6% | +13.7% | −1.0% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | $0.4283 | +3.7% | −16.3% | −30.0% |
| 18 Jan 2026 | $0.5307 | −6.4% | −19.3% | −35.8% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | $0.5477 | +1.1% | +2.4% | −37.4% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | $0.6220 | −7.6% | −5.3% | −14.7% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | $1.00 | +3.0% | −9.1% | −38.1% |
| 4 Jul 2025 | $1.51 | −1.5% | +27.9% | +8.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 24 are in the open data file.
The rule
Share of volume from market buys in the bottom 3% of the previous 180 days. Market sell orders taking an unusually large share of volume means sellers are hitting bids to get out rather than waiting.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uniswap | 52 | 33% | −5.3% | −4.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Quant | 47 | 34% | −3.7% | −2.3% | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 53 | 32% | −7.0% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 66 | 35% | −3.5% | −2.7% | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 54 | 37% | −4.5% | −3.3% | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 65 | 42% | −3.8% | −3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 35 | 54% | +1.2% | +4.6% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 90 | 46% | −1.1% | −1.5% | Weak evidence |
Extreme sell pressure across all 94 coins
Other Celestia signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals