After a 50% rise in 30 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 3,281 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence7 of 924 lean up · 3 lean down
No better than chance51 of 92coins
Scored cases3,281since 2017
The rule. Close at least 50% above the close 30 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Audius | 33 | 73% | +10.6% | −1.2% | +11.8% | 1.9% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Phala Network | 32 | 28% | −9.7% | −1.5% | −8.2% | 5.1% | 96 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Fetch.ai | 78 | 60% | +5.2% | −1.2% | +6.4% | 4.0% | 95 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Gitcoin | 25 | 24% | −12.6% | −1.2% | −11.4% | 4.6% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Injective | 60 | 58% | +7.0% | −0.1% | +7.0% | 7.6% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Hedera | 45 | 56% | +4.3% | −1.2% | +5.5% | 12% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Request | 15 | 33% | −9.0% | −0.5% | −8.5% | 7.0% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 DeXe | 37 | 62% | +4.4% | −0.3% | +4.7% | 26% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 38 | 37% | −3.9% | −0.8% | −3.1% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 42 | 62% | +2.8% | +0.5% | +2.4% | 48% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 36 | 39% | −5.4% | −1.1% | −4.4% | 36% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 44 | 41% | −5.5% | −1.3% | −4.1% | 54% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 52 | 44% | −1.8% | +0.3% | −2.1% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 54 | 63% | +2.6% | −0.3% | +3.0% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 31 | 39% | −4.3% | −0.2% | −4.1% | 34% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 65 | 57% | +2.4% | −0.6% | +3.0% | 56% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 56 | 54% | +0.6% | −0.8% | +1.5% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 32 | 44% | −3.2% | −0.2% | −3.0% | 52% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 43 | 47% | −1.5% | −0.1% | −1.4% | 87% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 25 | 32% | −6.1% | −1.3% | −4.8% | 45% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 19 | 42% | −6.6% | −1.5% | −5.1% | 34% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 39 | 46% | −1.5% | −0.5% | −1.0% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 40 | 45% | −2.0% | −1.0% | −0.9% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 45 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +1.0% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 48 | 46% | −1.9% | −0.4% | −1.5% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 44 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.7% | +0.6% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 63 | 49% | −0.9% | −1.3% | +0.4% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 65 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.6% | +0.6% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 12 | 17% | −13.8% | −3.4% | −10.4% | 26% | 46 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 28 | 29% | −6.3% | −2.7% | −3.6% | 66% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 18 | 33% | −8.3% | −1.9% | −6.3% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 33 | 42% | −3.3% | −1.7% | −1.5% | 87% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 31 | 39% | −2.1% | −1.4% | −0.7% | 95% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 25 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.3% | +1.8% | 75% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 20 | 25% | −4.9% | −1.6% | −3.4% | 65% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 29 | 38% | −2.1% | −1.3% | −0.8% | 96% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 26 | 50% | +0.1% | +0.7% | −0.6% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 28 | 43% | −1.4% | −0.8% | −0.5% | 96% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 17 | 35% | −6.3% | −2.5% | −3.8% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 11 | 27% | −6.3% | −2.0% | −4.3% | 73% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 20 | 60% | +1.2% | −0.5% | +1.7% | 91% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 16 | 44% | −2.0% | −1.5% | −0.5% | 98% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 50 | 52% | +3.7% | −1.4% | +5.1% | 28% | 29 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 33 | 58% | +4.1% | −1.0% | +5.1% | 32% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 41 | 59% | +3.0% | −0.6% | +3.6% | 45% | 27 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 33 | 67% | +4.3% | −0.4% | +4.7% | 33% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 37 | 41% | −3.6% | −1.0% | −2.6% | 54% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 40 | 43% | −3.1% | −1.1% | −2.0% | 68% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 47 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +2.1% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 40 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 85% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 48 | 44% | −1.8% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 51 | 51% | +0.5% | −0.7% | +1.2% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 68 | 53% | +0.4% | −0.8% | +1.2% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 40 | 50% | +1.0% | −0.1% | +1.1% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 56 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.3% | +1.2% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 53 | 57% | +0.8% | −0.6% | +1.3% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 39 | 36% | −1.8% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 54 | 56% | +0.8% | +0.1% | +0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 66 | 50% | −0.5% | +0.1% | −0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 43 | 49% | −1.7% | −0.9% | −0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 45 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.5% | +0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 28 | 39% | −4.6% | −2.2% | −2.3% | 59% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 39 | 49% | −2.5% | −1.8% | −0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 60 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.3% | −0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 41 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 38 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.0% | −0.5% | 94% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 40 | 48% | −0.9% | −1.2% | +0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 55 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.7% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 30 | 53% | +0.7% | −1.7% | +2.4% | 79% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 23 | 43% | −2.9% | −0.4% | −2.5% | 57% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 25 | 56% | +1.4% | −1.5% | +2.9% | 73% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 27 | 48% | −0.3% | −3.0% | +2.7% | 76% | 18 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 30 | 43% | −2.6% | −1.7% | −0.9% | 93% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +1.3% | 80% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 26 | 31% | −3.0% | −1.4% | −1.6% | 90% | 16 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 16 | 44% | −5.1% | −0.8% | −4.2% | 68% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 25 | 44% | −0.3% | −2.2% | +2.0% | 86% | 16 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 21 | 43% | −1.1% | +0.6% | −1.7% | 79% | 16 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 20 | 35% | −4.8% | −1.7% | −3.1% | 74% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 28 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 30 | 50% | −1.4% | −1.6% | +0.2% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 28 | 46% | −1.2% | −0.6% | −0.5% | 96% | 15 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 26 | 42% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 98% | 14 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 25 | 48% | −0.9% | −1.9% | +1.0% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 25 | 48% | −1.5% | −1.2% | −0.3% | 99% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 22 | 45% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.4% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 22 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.2% | −0.4% | 97% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 23 | 48% | −1.4% | −1.1% | −0.3% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 15 | 47% | −3.5% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 91% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 14 | 50% | −0.3% | −2.7% | +2.4% | 89% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 20 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.3% | +0.6% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 17 | 47% | −2.6% | −1.6% | −1.0% | 94% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 5 | 100% | +3.6% | −0.3% | +3.9% | 19% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 9 | 11% | −11.1% | −0.9% | −10.2% | 0.9% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.