COTI · COTI/USDT · daily
What happens to COTI after a 10% rise in 3 days?
Since 2020, COTI has shown a 10% rise in 3 days 137 times. In the 134 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 43% of the time, with a median move of −3.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for COTI is −1.3%.
Weak evidence49
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 49% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 134 | 36% | −2.2% | −5.1% to +0.9% | −0.1% | −2.1% | 0.4% | 95 |
| 3 days | 134 | 46% | −1.4% | −8.0% to +4.6% | −0.5% | −1.0% | 68% | 47 |
| 7 days | 134 | 43% | −3.5% | −14.4% to +9.9% | −1.3% | −2.2% | 49% | 49 |
| 14 days | 134 | 43% | −5.6% | −19.9% to +12.0% | −2.7% | −2.9% | 64% | 48 |
| 30 days | 134 | 43% | −8.4% | −25.0% to +21.8% | −5.5% | −2.9% | 87% | 22 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of COTI over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 9.0%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 80 the gap over 7 days was −2.0%, and in the later 54 it was −3.4%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | $0.02535 | −16.1% | −35.9% | −56.6% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | $0.01547 | +9.6% | +12.5% | −7.7% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | $0.01392 | −6.5% | +11.1% | −5.9% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | $0.01147 | −1.0% | +10.2% | +58.8% |
| 6 Aug 2026 | $0.01433 | −12.6% | −22.4% | +8.0% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $0.01104 | −0.3% | +13.9% | +12.0% |
| 17 Apr 2026 | $0.01527 | −2.6% | −5.7% | −16.9% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | $0.01406 | −0.9% | −10.1% | +5.3% |
| 26 Nov 2025 | $0.03038 | −3.5% | −8.0% | −28.8% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | $0.03760 | −6.1% | −6.6% | −31.3% |
| 13 Oct 2025 | $0.04061 | −3.2% | −15.6% | −6.4% |
| 3 Oct 2025 | $0.04755 | −3.3% | −23.2% | −30.0% |
The 12 most recent. All 137 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 10% above the close 3 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 61 | 25% | −6.3% | −5.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 58 | 31% | −5.3% | −4.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 DODO | 104 | 39% | −4.4% | −3.6% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 65 | 32% | −4.6% | −3.1% | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 94 | 39% | −4.2% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 82 | 37% | −4.2% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 59 | 34% | −6.2% | −4.2% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 92 | 36% | −3.2% | −2.2% | Weak evidence |
10% rise in 3 days across all 94 coins
Other COTI signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals