Arkham · ARKM/USDT · daily
What happens to Arkham after five red days in a row?
Since 2023, Arkham has shown five red days in a row 14 times. In the 13 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 54% of the time, with a median move of +5.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARKM is −2.5%.
Weak evidence46
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 38% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | 69% | +2.1% | −0.3% to +5.5% | −0.3% | +2.4% | 39% | 42 |
| 3 days | 13 | 62% | +6.8% | −2.7% to +11.4% | −0.9% | +7.8% | 14% | 69 |
| 7 days | 13 | 54% | +5.9% | −6.8% to +19.1% | −2.5% | +8.4% | 38% | 46 |
| 14 days | 13 | 46% | −0.1% | −6.5% to +19.4% | −4.1% | +4.0% | 89% | 36 |
| 30 days | 12 | 42% | −4.8% | −12.0% to +8.5% | −5.5% | +0.8% | 99% | 7 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARKM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 4.9%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was +15.7%, and in the later 6 it was +5.0%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | $0.1145 | +2.1% | +5.9% | open |
| 18 Aug 2026 | $0.08610 | +8.2% | +27.8% | +18.4% |
| 24 Jun 2026 | $0.1190 | −0.3% | −8.7% | −11.0% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | $0.1100 | +4.5% | −0.9% | −6.4% |
| 23 Nov 2025 | $0.2360 | +5.5% | −0.8% | −20.8% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | $0.4590 | −3.0% | +12.6% | +5.2% |
| 6 May 2025 | $0.5030 | +1.4% | +57.1% | −3.2% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | $0.7650 | −8.8% | −6.8% | −24.3% |
| 29 Aug 2024 | $1.07 | +0.4% | −12.4% | +38.0% |
| 31 Jul 2024 | $1.27 | −3.6% | −25.3% | −15.0% |
| 14 May 2024 | $2.23 | +8.2% | +13.2% | −10.4% |
| 4 Feb 2024 | $0.5048 | +2.1% | +19.1% | +352.2% |
The 12 most recent. All 14 are in the open data file.
The rule
Fifth consecutive daily close below the open. Five losing days in a row tempts traders to bet on a bounce.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ConstitutionDAO | 20 | 65% | +10.6% | +11.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Aptos | 24 | 58% | +5.9% | +7.4% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Dogecoin | 29 | 55% | +5.3% | +6.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 NEAR Protocol | 32 | 59% | +4.9% | +5.5% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 36 | 61% | +4.2% | +4.1% | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 43 | 58% | +1.3% | +2.6% | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 38 | 34% | −3.2% | −2.4% | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 31 | 61% | +2.6% | +4.3% | Weak evidence |
Five red days in a row across all 94 coins
Other Arkham signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals