Radworks signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily RAD candle since 7 Oct 2021 (1,865 days). 3 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 5 signals did no better than picking days at random.
RAD price · last close$0.207014 Nov 2026 close: $0.2070 (7d −9.6%)
RSI (14)32.8between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.86×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 35 | 20% | −9.3% | −0.9% | 1.9% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 54 | 30% | −4.7% | −0.9% | 16% | 73 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 20 | 70% | +6.0% | −0.9% | 16% | 69 | Some evidence · leans up | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 23 | 65% | +5.8% | −0.9% | 13% | 51 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 45 | 53% | +0.9% | −0.9% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 25 | 64% | +3.6% | −0.9% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 32 | 56% | +0.7% | −0.9% | 78% | 45 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | −0.9% | 66% | 44 | Weak evidence | 27 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 25 | 40% | −2.9% | −0.9% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence | 6 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 18 | 28% | −4.3% | −0.9% | 58% | 43 | Weak evidence | 6 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 16 | 44% | −1.9% | −0.9% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence | 26 Jul 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 42 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.9% | 75% | 24 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 29 | 38% | −3.1% | −0.9% | 70% | 20 | No better than chance | 12 May 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 19 | 26% | −2.7% | −0.9% | 81% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Jan 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 16 | 38% | −2.8% | −0.9% | 82% | 13 | No better than chance | 5 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 17 | 41% | −2.3% | −0.9% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 5 | 20% | −4.0% | −0.9% | 49% | Too few cases | 23 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 75% | +1.9% | −0.9% | 56% | Too few cases | 18 Jun 2026 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 8 | 0% | −13.5% | −0.9% | 0.2% | Too few cases | 5 Oct 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% rise in 3 days | 61 | 25% | −6.3% | −0.9% | 3.1% | 99 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 62 | 29% | −5.6% | −0.9% | 4.0% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans down | 16 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 26 | 15% | −9.7% | −0.9% | 1.9% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 19 | 11% | −15.0% | −0.9% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 20 | 10% | −14.5% | −0.9% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 11 | 9% | −15.8% | −0.9% | 2.8% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 96 | 35% | −4.0% | −0.9% | 9.9% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans down | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 64 | 34% | −2.9% | −0.9% | 53% | 50 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 46 | 57% | +1.0% | −0.9% | 66% | 50 | Weak evidence | 17 Aug 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 108 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.9% | 61% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 29 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.9% | 68% | 45 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 12 | 33% | −4.9% | −0.9% | 60% | 41 | Weak evidence | 1 Feb 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 63 | 44% | −1.7% | −0.9% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 34 | 38% | −1.1% | −0.9% | 98% | 18 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 10 | 40% | −1.0% | −0.9% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance | 25 Apr 2024 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 17 | 47% | −1.8% | −0.9% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance | 3 Feb 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 9 | 67% | +1.6% | −0.9% | 47% | Too few cases | 13 Apr 2024 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 7 | 57% | +1.6% | −0.9% | 52% | Too few cases | 1 Jun 2023 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 3 | 33% | −19.0% | −0.9% | 1.4% | Too few cases | 1 May 2023 | |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 9 | 11% | −11.1% | −0.9% | 0.9% | Too few cases | 11 May 2026 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 1 | 0% | −36.1% | −0.9% | – | Too few cases | 2 May 2023 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 45 | 44% | −2.2% | −0.9% | 77% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 49 | 49% | −0.6% | −0.9% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 6 | 33% | −1.5% | −0.9% | 87% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 25% | −4.4% | −0.9% | 32% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.