Phala Network signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily PHA candle since 25 Jun 2021 (1,969 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
PHA price · last close$0.0286014 Nov 2026 close: $0.02860 (7d −20.1%)
RSI (14)26.7under 30
Volume vs 30-day average0.39×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume50.4%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 47 | 32% | −8.1% | −1.5% | 5.1% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down | 19 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 24 | 33% | −8.4% | −1.5% | 21% | 58 | Some evidence · leans down | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 55 | 35% | −5.6% | −1.5% | 27% | 53 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 48 | 25% | −5.4% | −1.5% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence | 23 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 28 | 43% | −4.5% | −1.5% | 66% | 45 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 24 | 54% | +0.5% | −1.5% | 82% | 41 | Weak evidence | 28 Jul 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 24 | 46% | 0.0% | −1.5% | 87% | 40 | Weak evidence | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 24 | 38% | −2.7% | −1.5% | 91% | 39 | Weak evidence | 20 Jun 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 16 | 50% | +1.2% | −1.5% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 17 | 41% | −1.9% | −1.5% | 98% | 34 | No better than chance | 7 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 44 | 43% | −3.6% | −1.5% | 72% | 24 | No better than chance | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 43 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.5% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance | 21 May 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 48 | 35% | −2.5% | −1.5% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 31 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.5% | 86% | 18 | No better than chance | 22 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 17 | 59% | +2.8% | −1.5% | 61% | 17 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 9 | 22% | −11.2% | −1.5% | 4.0% | Too few cases | 27 May 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 6 | 33% | −1.3% | −1.5% | 97% | Too few cases | 29 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 40% | −0.2% | −1.5% | 81% | Too few cases | 9 Jul 2026 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 8 | 63% | +14.6% | −1.5% | 0.2% | Too few cases | 21 Sep 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% rise in 30 days | 32 | 28% | −9.7% | −1.5% | 5.1% | 96 | Strong evidence · leans down | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 46 | 30% | −7.6% | −1.5% | 7.2% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 24 | 29% | −13.0% | −1.5% | 3.1% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 21 | 29% | −13.0% | −1.5% | 4.6% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 14 | 36% | −13.9% | −1.5% | 7.6% | 57 | Some evidence · leans down | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 52 | 37% | −4.9% | −1.5% | 41% | 52 | Weak evidence | 24 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 93 | 34% | −4.4% | −1.5% | 33% | 51 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 88 | 39% | −4.5% | −1.5% | 31% | 51 | Weak evidence | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 83 | 35% | −4.5% | −1.5% | 34% | 51 | Weak evidence | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 85 | 34% | −3.2% | −1.5% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence | 23 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 132 | 39% | −2.3% | −1.5% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 128 | 41% | −2.5% | −1.5% | 76% | 47 | Weak evidence | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 14 | 21% | −8.1% | −1.5% | 42% | 45 | Weak evidence | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 22 | 36% | −4.7% | −1.5% | 68% | 42 | Weak evidence | 24 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 26 | 35% | −3.1% | −1.5% | 86% | 41 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 17 | 41% | −10.8% | −1.5% | 17% | 39 | Weak evidence | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 58 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.5% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 73 | 45% | −0.5% | −1.5% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 11 | 45% | −4.0% | −1.5% | 87% | 10 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 12 | 42% | −3.7% | −1.5% | 87% | 10 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 8 | 50% | −3.7% | −1.5% | 61% | Too few cases | 30 Sep 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 48 | 33% | −4.2% | −1.5% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 55 | 49% | −0.7% | −1.5% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 7 | 43% | −5.5% | −1.5% | 40% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 38% | −3.1% | −1.5% | 70% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.03470 | open |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.03900 | −11.8% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.04110 | −12.9% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.04750 | −18.1% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.05350 | −20.7% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.06220 | −19.3% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.04820 | +0.4% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.04820 | +0.4% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.