Pepe signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily PEPE candle since 5 May 2023 (1,290 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
PEPE price · last close$0.0000038914 Nov 2026 close: $0.00000389 (7d −20.1%)
RSI (14)37.6between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average1.02×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume48.1%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−86%above the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% drop in a day | 32 | 22% | −6.8% | −1.4% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 51 | 41% | −4.0% | −1.4% | 69% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 24 | 54% | +1.3% | −1.4% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence | 19 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 11 | 64% | +5.2% | −1.4% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence | 21 Mar 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 18 | 67% | +2.0% | −1.4% | 76% | 40 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 12 | 58% | +3.2% | −1.4% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 11 | 64% | +0.7% | −1.4% | 92% | 34 | No better than chance | 12 Jun 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 13 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 98% | 32 | No better than chance | 24 Jun 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 27 | 52% | +5.2% | −1.4% | 37% | 24 | No better than chance | 16 Aug 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 10 | 50% | +2.7% | −1.4% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 10 | 30% | −3.0% | −1.4% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 10 | 50% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 17 | 47% | −4.9% | −1.4% | 77% | 14 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 23 | 39% | −0.7% | −1.4% | 95% | 13 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 15 | 53% | +0.9% | −1.4% | 89% | 11 | No better than chance | 15 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 15 | 47% | −2.6% | −1.4% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance | 6 May 2026 |
| Golden cross | 4 | 50% | +1.1% | −1.4% | 72% | Too few cases | 19 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 33% | −2.1% | −1.4% | 91% | Too few cases | 1 Oct 2025 | |
| Volatility squeeze | 9 | 56% | +9.0% | −1.4% | 5.4% | Too few cases | 4 May 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% drop in a day | 66 | 29% | −5.6% | −1.4% | 32% | 52 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 70 | 41% | −4.3% | −1.4% | 54% | 50 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 38 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.4% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 25 | 64% | +5.1% | −1.4% | 40% | 48 | Weak evidence | 19 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 78 | 41% | −2.8% | −1.4% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 28 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 19 | 63% | +3.9% | −1.4% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 31 | 39% | −2.1% | −1.4% | 95% | 42 | Weak evidence | 23 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 28 | 25% | −2.6% | −1.4% | 93% | 41 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 103 | 44% | −3.0% | −1.4% | 72% | 23 | No better than chance | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 48 | 38% | −3.3% | −1.4% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance | 30 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 78 | 40% | −1.9% | −1.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 95 | 42% | −1.8% | −1.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 36 | 53% | +0.5% | −1.4% | 83% | 21 | No better than chance | 19 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 25 | 48% | −6.3% | −1.4% | 57% | 20 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 18 | 61% | +1.8% | −1.4% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 13 | 31% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 98% | 7 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 13 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 98% | 7 | No better than chance | 10 May 2025 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 11 | 36% | −0.8% | −1.4% | 98% | 6 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 7 | 14% | −8.4% | −1.4% | 27% | Too few cases | 11 Nov 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 5 | 60% | +12.1% | −1.4% | 7.2% | Too few cases | 10 Oct 2025 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 20% | −7.5% | −1.4% | 40% | Too few cases | 16 Feb 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 30 | 60% | +1.9% | −1.4% | 68% | 45 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 21 | 19% | −5.4% | −1.4% | 69% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 100% | +8.2% | −1.4% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 4 | 50% | +7.2% | −1.4% | 26% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.00000452 | open |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.00000494 | +1.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | $0.00000456 | +5.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.00000456 | +5.3% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.00000457 | +8.1% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.00000416 | +3.8% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.