Memecoin signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily MEME candle since 3 Nov 2023 (1,108 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
MEME price · last close$0.0003290014 Nov 2026 close: $0.00032900 (7d −17.3%)
RSI (14)23under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.54×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme sell pressure | 35 | 54% | +1.2% | −3.4% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 29 | 48% | −1.6% | −3.4% | 84% | 43 | Weak evidence | 31 Jan 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 20 | 30% | −7.0% | −3.4% | 70% | 42 | Weak evidence | 3 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 12 | 25% | −8.4% | −3.4% | 64% | 40 | Weak evidence | 1 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 12 | 50% | −0.9% | −3.4% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence | 22 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 40 | 40% | −3.5% | −3.4% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 10 | 40% | −5.5% | −3.4% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance | 3 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 33 | 45% | −2.1% | −3.4% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 28 | 25% | −2.2% | −3.4% | 92% | 16 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 17 | 47% | −1.3% | −3.4% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance | 16 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 18 | 33% | −3.5% | −3.4% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 16 | 25% | −3.6% | −3.4% | 99% | 8 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 7 | 57% | +5.5% | −3.4% | 11% | Too few cases | 1 Jun 2026 | |
| RSI rises above 70 | 3 | 67% | +8.7% | −3.4% | 15% | Too few cases | 20 Aug 2025 | |
| Golden cross | 3 | 67% | +3.1% | −3.4% | 39% | Too few cases | 3 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 33% | −9.5% | −3.4% | 42% | Too few cases | 29 Oct 2026 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 3 | 33% | −9.3% | −3.4% | 43% | Too few cases | 20 Aug 2025 | |
| Five green days in a row | 8 | 38% | −7.7% | −3.4% | 36% | Too few cases | 30 Jun 2026 | |
| Volatility squeeze | 9 | 22% | −6.2% | −3.4% | 54% | Too few cases | 6 May 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% rise in a day | 55 | 51% | +0.2% | −3.4% | 42% | 52 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 26 | 27% | −9.1% | −3.4% | 34% | 48 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 45 | 42% | −4.0% | −3.4% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 50 | 40% | −3.9% | −3.4% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence | 19 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 12 | 17% | −13.8% | −3.4% | 26% | 46 | Weak evidence | 11 Sep 2025 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 26 | 42% | −1.7% | −3.4% | 86% | 41 | Weak evidence | 26 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 43 | 44% | −1.3% | −3.4% | 75% | 24 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 60 | 45% | −1.8% | −3.4% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 89 | 42% | −3.0% | −3.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 56 | 41% | −3.0% | −3.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 12 | 25% | −11.3% | −3.4% | 39% | 21 | No better than chance | 31 May 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 79 | 43% | −3.2% | −3.4% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 30 | 40% | −2.2% | −3.4% | 91% | 17 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 17 | 41% | −6.4% | −3.4% | 78% | 14 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 14 | 36% | −2.6% | −3.4% | 96% | 9 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 12 | 42% | −3.9% | −3.4% | 98% | 7 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 8 | 63% | +2.1% | −3.4% | 25% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 6 | 33% | −3.3% | −3.4% | 98% | Too few cases | 16 Mar 2025 | |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 9 | 33% | −11.2% | −3.4% | 11% | Too few cases | 4 Jun 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 5 | 20% | −20.7% | −3.4% | 1.8% | Too few cases | 22 Aug 2025 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 4 | 0% | −17.8% | −3.4% | 5.0% | Too few cases | 22 Aug 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 25 | 44% | −2.5% | −3.4% | 94% | 39 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 19 | 32% | −2.3% | −3.4% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 100% | +1.8% | −3.4% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 3 | 33% | −6.7% | −3.4% | 66% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00040400 | −6.7% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.00039000 | −2.3% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00039000 | −2.3% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.00039000 | −2.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.00043100 | −9.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Death cross | $0.00043100 | −9.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00043100 | −9.5% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.00050900 | −6.3% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.