dYdX signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily DYDX candle since 9 Sep 2021 (1,893 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
DYDX price · last close$0.0772314 Nov 2026 close: $0.07723 (7d −18.9%)
RSI (14)24under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.31×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 49 | 39% | −4.0% | −1.7% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 52 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.7% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 19 | 68% | +3.7% | −1.7% | 53% | 44 | Weak evidence | 27 Mar 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 16 | 63% | +4.7% | −1.7% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence | 14 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 19 | 11% | −6.6% | −1.7% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 23 | 65% | +1.5% | −1.7% | 74% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 12 | 25% | −2.7% | −1.7% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance | 1 Jul 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 52 | 31% | −3.3% | −1.7% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 48 | 38% | −2.3% | −1.7% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 41 | 49% | −1.4% | −1.7% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 7 Jul 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 24 | 54% | +1.4% | −1.7% | 73% | 17 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 29 | 38% | −2.8% | −1.7% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 22 | 41% | −3.9% | −1.7% | 85% | 15 | No better than chance | 4 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 17 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.7% | 83% | 13 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 15 | 53% | +1.7% | −1.7% | 79% | 13 | No better than chance | 7 May 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 19 | 47% | −1.4% | −1.7% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 7 | 29% | −11.3% | −1.7% | 9.8% | Too few cases | 26 Jul 2026 | |
| Death cross | 7 | 71% | +3.8% | −1.7% | 32% | Too few cases | 17 Aug 2026 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 9 | 33% | −3.4% | −1.7% | 72% | Too few cases | 1 Oct 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 7 days | 40 | 28% | −6.8% | −1.7% | 31% | 54 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 72 | 38% | −4.4% | −1.7% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 21 | 24% | −10.0% | −1.7% | 26% | 50 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 91 | 27% | −4.0% | −1.7% | 57% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 148 | 37% | −3.6% | −1.7% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 104 | 39% | −2.3% | −1.7% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 12 | 75% | +3.4% | −1.7% | 68% | 40 | Weak evidence | 10 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 14 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 99% | 33 | No better than chance | 1 Jul 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 134 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.7% | 54% | 24 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 95 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 47 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 2 Jul 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 75 | 36% | −1.6% | −1.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 88 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 37 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.7% | 98% | 19 | No better than chance | 26 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 21 | 33% | −5.5% | −1.7% | 70% | 17 | No better than chance | 3 Jul 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 21 | 52% | +0.8% | −1.7% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 26 | 42% | −2.1% | −1.7% | 98% | 14 | No better than chance | 9 May 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 15 | 47% | −2.1% | −1.7% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance | 23 Jun 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 9 | 44% | −0.2% | −1.7% | 76% | Too few cases | 10 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 6 | 17% | −14.3% | −1.7% | 3.4% | Too few cases | 8 Dec 2024 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 6 | 33% | −8.7% | −1.7% | 23% | Too few cases | 4 Dec 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 46 | 30% | −6.3% | −1.7% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 50 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 100% | 45 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 6 | 50% | −1.2% | −1.7% | 93% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 63% | +0.2% | −1.7% | 70% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.08856 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.09516 | −3.7% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.09516 | −3.7% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.09516 | −3.7% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.1058 | −13.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.1063 | −10.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1066 | −4.9% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1187 | −7.0% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.