dYdX seasonality: every month and weekday
Going by median return since 2021, dYdX's best month has been November (+7.8%, higher in 3 of 5 years) and its worst December (−28.6%, higher in 0 of 5). Across all 61 full months, it finished higher 38% of the time.
A handful of years per month is a small sample. The “by luck” column says how easily a record like that would turn up if the month were no different from any other.
By month
| Month | Years | Higher | Median | Average | Best | Worst | By luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5 | 1 of 5 | −20.0% | +22.1% | +192% (2023) | −27% (2022) | 66% |
| February | 5 | 1 of 5 | −9.4% | −9.8% | +26% (2024) | −35% (2025) | 66% |
| March | 5 | 3 of 5 | +2.4% | −2.4% | +7% (2026) | −14% (2023) | 37% |
| April | 5 | 3 of 5 | +2.0% | −5.6% | +50% (2026) | −42% (2022) | 37% |
| May | 5 | 1 of 5 | −14.4% | −10.4% | +26% (2026) | −41% (2022) | 66% |
| June | 5 | 1 of 5 | −5.7% | −14.5% | +1% (2023) | −33% (2022) | 66% |
| July | 5 | 3 of 5 | +2.6% | +8.4% | +82% (2022) | −37% (2026) | 37% |
| August | 5 | 2 of 5 | −5.6% | −11.4% | +6% (2025) | −39% (2022) | 100% |
| September | 5 | 2 of 5 | −1.9% | +2.7% | +34% (2026) | −16% (2022) | 100% |
| October | 6 | 3 of 6 | −11.5% | −10.4% | +29% (2022) | −50% (2025) | 68% |
| November | 5 | 3 of 5 | +7.8% | +15.7% | +67% (2024) | −20% (2025) | 37% |
| December | 5 | 0 of 5 | −28.6% | −25.4% | −9% (2023) | −38% (2022) | 16% |
By weekday
| Day (UTC) | Days | Higher | Median daily move | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 270 | 50% | 0.00% | −0.33% |
| Tuesday | 270 | 50% | 0.00% | +0.01% |
| Wednesday | 270 | 51% | +0.19% | +0.22% |
| Thursday | 270 | 45% | −0.81% | −0.30% |
| Friday | 271 | 55% | +0.69% | +0.40% |
| Saturday | 271 | 48% | −0.18% | −0.22% |
| Sunday | 270 | 41% | −1.21% | −0.42% |
A month's return runs from the open of its first daily candle to the close of its last (UTC). Only full months are counted. Daily moves are close to close.