Conflux signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily CFX candle since 29 Mar 2021 (2,057 days). 3 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
CFX price · last close$0.0337214 Nov 2026 close: $0.03372 (7d −20.1%)
RSI (14)23.5under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.86×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume44.3%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 69 | 29% | −7.4% | −1.6% | 7.6% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down | 10 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 26 | 73% | +6.9% | −1.6% | 11% | 82 | Strong evidence · leans up | 6 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 31 | 35% | −8.7% | −1.6% | 17% | 69 | Some evidence · leans down | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 45 | 31% | −3.5% | −1.6% | 79% | 49 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 16 | 56% | +6.1% | −1.6% | 35% | 47 | Weak evidence | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 62 | 45% | −0.9% | −1.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 12 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 23 | 35% | −5.2% | −1.6% | 68% | 43 | Weak evidence | 6 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 23 | 48% | −3.8% | −1.6% | 84% | 41 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 52 | 33% | −3.7% | −1.6% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 56 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 47 | 45% | −1.7% | −1.6% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 13 | 46% | −9.1% | −1.6% | 44% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 22 | 55% | +2.8% | −1.6% | 60% | 19 | No better than chance | 12 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 25 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.6% | 93% | 15 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 19 | 37% | −4.3% | −1.6% | 82% | 14 | No better than chance | 12 Jul 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 19 | 53% | +0.1% | −1.6% | 91% | 13 | No better than chance | 4 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 24 | 42% | −1.6% | −1.6% | 100% | 12 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Golden cross | 6 | 50% | −5.1% | −1.6% | 53% | Too few cases | 11 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 0% | −8.1% | −1.6% | 32% | Too few cases | 7 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% rise in a day | 36 | 28% | −10.0% | −1.6% | 6.8% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans down | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 29 | 34% | −10.3% | −1.6% | 8.5% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans down | 16 Apr 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 45 | 38% | −6.4% | −1.6% | 33% | 54 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 39 | 36% | −6.1% | −1.6% | 40% | 53 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 105 | 35% | −4.3% | −1.6% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 114 | 50% | −0.1% | −1.6% | 74% | 48 | Weak evidence | 24 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 95 | 41% | −3.3% | −1.6% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 71 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.6% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 101 | 41% | −2.2% | −1.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 29 | 59% | +1.3% | −1.6% | 73% | 45 | Weak evidence | 13 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 18 | 61% | +3.3% | −1.6% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 12 | 67% | +5.0% | −1.6% | 53% | 43 | Weak evidence | 30 Apr 2024 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 67 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.6% | 59% | 25 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 53 | 42% | −2.6% | −1.6% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 159 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.6% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 146 | 43% | −1.6% | −1.6% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 31 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.6% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance | 17 May 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 23 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.6% | 90% | 15 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 30 | 50% | −1.4% | −1.6% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance | 17 Aug 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 15 | 47% | −4.0% | −1.6% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance | 10 Aug 2025 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 8 | 38% | −7.9% | −1.6% | 21% | Too few cases | 20 Jul 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 55 | 40% | −2.5% | −1.6% | 92% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 60 | 52% | +1.4% | −1.6% | 53% | 25 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 10 | 30% | −6.2% | −1.6% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 10 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.6% | 97% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.04616 | −11.3% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.04705 | −10.3% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.05287 | −11.2% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.05287 | −11.2% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.