After a 20% rise in 7 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 4,450 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence12 of 930 lean up · 12 lean down
No better than chance37 of 93coins
Scored cases4,450since 2017
The rule. Close at least 20% above the close 7 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DODO | 46 | 35% | −7.9% | −0.8% | −7.1% | 5.1% | 98 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Ravencoin | 49 | 39% | −7.1% | −1.3% | −5.8% | 6.8% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Internet Computer | 41 | 34% | −8.1% | −1.3% | −6.8% | 7.6% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 46 | 30% | −7.6% | −1.5% | −6.1% | 7.2% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 26 | 15% | −9.7% | −0.9% | −8.8% | 1.9% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Terra Classic | 24 | 25% | −9.0% | −1.6% | −7.4% | 4.6% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 21 | 10% | −9.3% | −0.5% | −8.8% | 3.1% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Horizen | 72 | 42% | −6.0% | −0.7% | −5.3% | 14% | 77 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Curve DAO | 64 | 38% | −5.9% | −0.5% | −5.4% | 18% | 69 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 30 | 27% | −6.4% | −1.5% | −4.9% | 20% | 63 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Tellor | 77 | 39% | −5.3% | −0.4% | −4.9% | 24% | 56 | Some evidence · leans down |
 AVA (Travala) | 40 | 33% | −5.0% | −0.4% | −4.6% | 28% | 55 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 45 | 38% | −6.4% | −1.6% | −4.9% | 33% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 40 | 28% | −6.8% | −1.7% | −5.2% | 31% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 47 | 38% | −5.8% | −1.2% | −4.7% | 38% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 47 | 34% | −5.8% | −1.7% | −4.0% | 40% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 69 | 46% | −3.3% | +0.1% | −3.4% | 37% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 49 | 35% | −4.6% | −1.2% | −3.4% | 38% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 37 | 65% | +2.7% | +0.5% | +2.2% | 46% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 52 | 37% | −3.5% | −1.0% | −2.6% | 44% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 53 | 57% | +2.3% | +0.3% | +2.0% | 59% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 61 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.9% | −2.4% | 60% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 73 | 41% | −3.6% | −0.7% | −2.9% | 48% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 49 | 35% | −4.2% | −1.3% | −2.8% | 64% | 50 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 34 | 59% | +2.4% | −1.7% | +4.2% | 48% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 67 | 55% | +2.0% | −0.6% | +2.6% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 40 | 38% | −3.4% | −1.4% | −2.0% | 80% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 90 | 57% | +1.6% | −1.2% | +2.8% | 52% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 67 | 40% | −3.0% | −1.0% | −2.0% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 59 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.4% | +2.2% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 34 | 59% | +2.0% | −0.4% | +2.4% | 47% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 56 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.7% | −1.5% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 57 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.1% | +1.2% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 45 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.2% | +1.5% | 86% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 45 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.2% | +1.3% | 88% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 78 | 42% | −3.3% | −1.3% | −2.0% | 74% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 69 | 45% | −2.0% | −0.3% | −1.7% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 26 | 27% | −9.1% | −3.4% | −5.6% | 34% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 71 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.6% | +1.2% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 48 | 44% | −1.9% | −1.2% | −0.7% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 43 | 37% | −3.9% | −3.0% | −0.9% | 94% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 57 | 54% | +0.7% | −0.1% | +0.8% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 57 | 47% | −2.7% | −1.8% | −1.0% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 29 | 45% | −3.1% | −0.2% | −2.9% | 47% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 54 | 46% | −0.6% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 51 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.0% | −0.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 26 | 31% | −6.6% | −1.9% | −4.7% | 52% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 63 | 43% | −1.1% | −0.6% | −0.5% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 27 | 37% | −4.5% | −1.5% | −3.0% | 70% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 36 | 39% | −3.7% | −2.5% | −1.1% | 93% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 34 | 50% | 0.0% | +0.7% | −0.6% | 88% | 44 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 36 | 42% | −3.4% | −2.7% | −0.7% | 94% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 32 | 44% | −1.3% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 94% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 29 | 59% | +1.6% | −0.5% | +2.1% | 83% | 43 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 28 | 43% | −3.3% | −1.9% | −1.4% | 86% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 26 | 46% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 58 | 52% | +2.7% | −0.6% | +3.3% | 37% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 52 | 54% | +1.8% | −0.4% | +2.3% | 69% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 39 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.1% | +2.0% | 73% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 62 | 53% | +1.5% | −0.3% | +1.8% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 76 | 46% | −1.9% | −0.1% | −1.9% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 52 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.5% | +1.2% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 47 | 45% | −2.7% | −0.9% | −1.8% | 80% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 44 | 43% | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.5% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 54 | 50% | +0.4% | −0.8% | +1.2% | 83% | 23 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 51 | 53% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +0.9% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 39 | 46% | −2.1% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 34 | 50% | −1.1% | +0.6% | −1.8% | 68% | 22 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 46 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.3% | +0.7% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 73 | 51% | 0.0% | −1.3% | +1.3% | 83% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 66 | 47% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 41 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 57 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.1% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 36 | 53% | +0.5% | −1.4% | +1.9% | 83% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 31 | 32% | −5.9% | −2.7% | −3.3% | 71% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 56 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.2% | −0.8% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 41 | 49% | −0.9% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 74 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 54 | 41% | −1.0% | −1.3% | +0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 73 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.7% | 89% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 38 | 47% | −0.1% | −1.1% | +1.0% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 45 | 44% | −2.5% | −1.7% | −0.8% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 40 | 48% | −0.8% | −1.3% | +0.5% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 47 | 47% | −0.9% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 31 | 55% | +0.8% | −1.5% | +2.3% | 78% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 77 | 51% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 81 | 48% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 26 | 42% | −3.9% | −1.6% | −2.4% | 74% | 18 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 32 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 26 | 42% | −0.6% | −1.7% | +1.1% | 92% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 27 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 22 | 50% | −1.1% | −2.2% | +1.2% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 22 | 45% | −0.7% | −2.0% | +1.2% | 92% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 8 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.3% | +0.2% | 93% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.