Basic Attention Token signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily BAT candle since 4 Mar 2019 (2,813 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
BAT price · last close$0.0920014 Nov 2026 close: $0.09200 (7d −25.6%)
RSI (14)34.6between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.61×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume52.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−95%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in a week | 40 | 65% | +5.0% | −0.1% | 18% | 70 | Strong evidence · leans up | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 56 | 66% | +4.1% | −0.1% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans up | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 58 | 41% | −1.9% | −0.1% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 26 | 69% | +5.1% | −0.1% | 33% | 49 | Weak evidence | 11 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 33 | 61% | +3.1% | −0.1% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence | 12 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 57 | 51% | +0.6% | −0.1% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 44 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 74 | 53% | +1.0% | −0.1% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 1 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 18 | 67% | +3.1% | −0.1% | 70% | 41 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 24 | 33% | −1.9% | −0.1% | 84% | 41 | Weak evidence | 14 Apr 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 35 | 57% | +2.4% | −0.1% | 67% | 23 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 82 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.1% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 40 | 43% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 27 May 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 32 | 53% | +2.1% | −0.1% | 73% | 21 | No better than chance | 25 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 25 | 40% | −3.7% | −0.1% | 58% | 20 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 30 | 57% | +0.7% | −0.1% | 93% | 17 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 26 | 54% | +0.3% | −0.1% | 97% | 14 | No better than chance | 11 Aug 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 22% | −1.9% | −0.1% | 65% | Too few cases | 13 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 13% | −4.3% | −0.1% | 32% | Too few cases | 12 Feb 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 66 | 62% | +2.0% | −0.1% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 116 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 74% | +5.9% | −0.1% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 176 | 43% | −1.2% | −0.1% | 67% | 47 | Weak evidence | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 120 | 43% | −0.9% | −0.1% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 57 | 54% | +0.7% | −0.1% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence | 16 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 124 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.1% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 30 | 50% | −2.0% | −0.1% | 79% | 44 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 24 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.1% | 90% | 40 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 20 | 55% | +0.5% | −0.1% | 96% | 36 | Weak evidence | 16 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 13 | 69% | +0.7% | −0.1% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 39 | 46% | −2.0% | −0.1% | 76% | 23 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 17 | 65% | +6.7% | −0.1% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance | 18 Feb 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 195 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.1% | 76% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 48 | 56% | +0.7% | −0.1% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 40 | 50% | +1.0% | −0.1% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 116 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.1% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 10 | 50% | +1.0% | −0.1% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 9 | 89% | +15.1% | −0.1% | 0.1% | Too few cases | 6 Jun 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 6 | 83% | +15.8% | −0.1% | 0.4% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 6 | 50% | −6.1% | −0.1% | 23% | Too few cases | 11 Oct 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 84 | 56% | +0.8% | −0.1% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 16 | 75% | +5.6% | −0.1% | 43% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 104 | 51% | +0.8% | −0.1% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 22 | 50% | −1.5% | −0.1% | 90% | 14 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1279 | −3.8% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.1463 | −19.3% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1360 | −13.3% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.1421 | −13.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1270 | +0.7% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.1523 | −17.3% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1514 | −10.2% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.