What happens to VeChain after a golden cross?

Since 2018, VeChain has shown a golden cross 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 20% of the time, with a median move of −12.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for VET is −0.8%.

Weak evidence38

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 21% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201810last on 21 Sep 2026

Higher after 7 days20%ordinary: 46%

Median 7-day move−12.1%ordinary: −0.8%

Could be luck21%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−27% / +48%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary VET drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 10 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	30%	−0.7%	−3.6% to +0.8%	−0.1%	−0.6%	82%	19
3 days	10	20%	−6.2%	−7.8% to −0.8%	−0.3%	−5.9%	22%	36
7 days	10	20%	−12.1%	−16.1% to −4.0%	−0.8%	−11.3%	21%	38
14 days	10	40%	−6.9%	−22.4% to +0.6%	−1.7%	−5.2%	82%	22
30 days	10	50%	+0.4%	−20.8% to +29.1%	−4.4%	+4.7%	93%	19

“Ordinary median” is the median move of VET over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 1.1%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−17.0%ordinary VET: −8.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−25.3%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way70%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+4.4%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−12.4%ordinary: −1.1%

Ahead after costs20%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
21 Sep 2026	$0.00932	−0.3%	−4.7%	−18.1%
29 Nov 2024	$0.04537	+1.2%	+48.4%	−0.6%
12 Nov 2023	$0.02227	−4.4%	−3.7%	+31.4%
21 Feb 2023	$0.03014	−1.9%	−10.6%	−21.8%
9 Nov 2021	$0.1710	−4.9%	−15.6%	−50.0%
14 Sep 2021	$0.1176	+3.8%	−26.8%	+1.3%
18 Dec 2020	$0.01742	−0.3%	−16.2%	+55.8%
12 Jun 2020	$0.00971	−1.2%	−13.7%	+87.0%
8 Dec 2019	$0.00713	−4.2%	−21.9%	−21.7%
25 Apr 2019	$0.00602	+1.9%	+7.6%	+22.0%

The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.

The rule

50-day moving average closes above the 200-day moving average after being below it. The 50-day average crossing above the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bullish signals in any market.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

Other VeChain signals

RSI rises above 70Strong evidence · 39 cases Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 34 cases Five green days in a rowWeak evidence · 33 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 50 cases Five red days in a rowWeak evidence · 38 cases

Full VeChain record

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