The Sandbox signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily SAND candle since 14 Aug 2020 (2,284 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
SAND price · last close$0.0353614 Nov 2026 close: $0.03536 (7d −17.2%)
RSI (14)28.4under 30
Volume vs 30-day average0.72×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.9%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI rises above 70 | 26 | 58% | +5.6% | −1.3% | 22% | 57 | Some evidence · leans up | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 34 | 59% | +4.1% | −1.3% | 28% | 53 | Weak evidence | 14 May 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 47 | 64% | +2.7% | −1.3% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 41 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.3% | 62% | 51 | Weak evidence | 16 May 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 47 | 38% | −3.2% | −1.3% | 76% | 49 | Weak evidence | 8 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 52 | 38% | −3.7% | −1.3% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 33 | 58% | +2.6% | −1.3% | 50% | 49 | Weak evidence | 12 Aug 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 29 | 59% | +2.7% | −1.3% | 55% | 47 | Weak evidence | 24 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 36 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.3% | 82% | 46 | Weak evidence | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 25 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.3% | 83% | 41 | Weak evidence | 10 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 16 | 44% | −8.4% | −1.3% | 36% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 57 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 62 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 24 | 54% | +1.4% | −1.3% | 74% | 17 | No better than chance | 3 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 21 | 52% | +1.8% | −1.3% | 73% | 16 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 21 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.3% | 96% | 12 | No better than chance | 23 Jul 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 19 | 42% | −0.7% | −1.3% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Golden cross | 5 | 60% | +4.7% | −1.3% | 32% | Too few cases | 9 Nov 2026 | |
| Death cross | 6 | 67% | +4.3% | −1.3% | 29% | Too few cases | 10 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 3 days | 52 | 54% | +1.8% | −1.3% | 50% | 51 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 82 | 56% | +1.0% | −1.3% | 54% | 49 | Weak evidence | 24 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 61 | 51% | 0.0% | −1.3% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 25 | 56% | +3.5% | −1.3% | 48% | 47 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 45 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 16 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 106 | 39% | −2.0% | −1.3% | 88% | 46 | Weak evidence | 23 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 16 | 81% | +5.3% | −1.3% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 22 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | 90% | 39 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 155 | 35% | −2.9% | −1.3% | 56% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 27 | 56% | +3.3% | −1.3% | 48% | 23 | No better than chance | 15 Dec 2024 |
| 7% rise in a day | 105 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 94 | 43% | −2.4% | −1.3% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 3 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 42 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 54 | 41% | −1.0% | −1.3% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 107 | 45% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 146 | 46% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 94% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 34 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 92% | 19 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 32 | 47% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 18 | 44% | −3.9% | −1.3% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 16 | 44% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 80% | +16.4% | −1.3% | 1.7% | Too few cases | 18 May 2022 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 37% | −2.9% | −1.3% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 49% | −0.1% | −1.3% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 64% | +3.4% | −1.3% | 69% | 40 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 62% | +4.9% | −1.3% | 52% | 19 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Golden cross | $0.04218 | open |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.04631 | −7.8% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.04977 | −7.0% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.06001 | −17.1% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.