After a 7% rise in a day: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 9,226 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence5 of 940 lean up · 5 lean down
No better than chance52 of 94coins
Scored cases9,226since 2017
The rule. Close at least 7% above the close one day earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JUST | 62 | 39% | −5.2% | +0.6% | −5.8% | 1.9% | 100 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 62 | 29% | −5.6% | −0.9% | −4.8% | 4.0% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Shiba Inu | 69 | 32% | −5.8% | −1.5% | −4.3% | 6.8% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 49 | 33% | −4.3% | −0.5% | −3.8% | 11% | 85 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 100 | 33% | −4.5% | −1.2% | −3.4% | 12% | 78 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Polymesh | 43 | 53% | +2.2% | −1.6% | +3.8% | 37% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 54 | 35% | −4.6% | −2.2% | −2.3% | 37% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 55 | 51% | +0.2% | −3.4% | +3.7% | 42% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 74 | 38% | −3.4% | −1.3% | −2.1% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 88 | 39% | −4.5% | −1.5% | −3.0% | 31% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 61 | 39% | −2.2% | −0.4% | −1.8% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 84 | 58% | +2.1% | +0.5% | +1.6% | 37% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 93 | 42% | −2.1% | −0.2% | −1.9% | 48% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 107 | 37% | −3.8% | −0.8% | −2.9% | 35% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 105 | 35% | −4.3% | −1.6% | −2.8% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 96 | 41% | −2.3% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 54% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 120 | 43% | −2.6% | −1.1% | −1.4% | 56% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 79 | 44% | −2.8% | −0.8% | −1.9% | 52% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 109 | 42% | −2.9% | −0.9% | −2.1% | 60% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 74 | 58% | +2.4% | −0.3% | +2.6% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 56 | 39% | −3.2% | −0.5% | −2.7% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 102 | 42% | −3.6% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 56% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 25 | 56% | +2.5% | −0.3% | +2.8% | 33% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 104 | 41% | −2.0% | −1.0% | −1.0% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 91 | 42% | −2.3% | −1.1% | −1.2% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 56 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.7% | +1.3% | 83% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 106 | 56% | +1.4% | −0.1% | +1.5% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 146 | 57% | +1.9% | +0.1% | +1.8% | 55% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 174 | 52% | +0.6% | −1.2% | +1.8% | 57% | 48 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 70 | 30% | −3.6% | −1.9% | −1.8% | 65% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 131 | 46% | −2.1% | −0.3% | −1.8% | 63% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 147 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.6% | +1.4% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 120 | 41% | −2.1% | −0.8% | −1.3% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 124 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 78 | 41% | −2.8% | −1.4% | −1.4% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 142 | 44% | −1.1% | −0.1% | −1.0% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 65 | 45% | −1.1% | −2.7% | +1.6% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 111 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.2% | +1.3% | 75% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 132 | 49% | −0.2% | −1.0% | +0.8% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 120 | 43% | −0.9% | −0.1% | −0.7% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 85 | 42% | −1.7% | −1.1% | −0.7% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 147 | 45% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 84 | 42% | −4.3% | −1.3% | −3.0% | 36% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 108 | 53% | +2.4% | −0.4% | +2.8% | 36% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 115 | 53% | +2.1% | −0.6% | +2.7% | 27% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 83 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.4% | +2.3% | 61% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 128 | 55% | +1.3% | −0.7% | +2.0% | 52% | 24 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 70 | 37% | −3.6% | −1.9% | −1.6% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 79 | 42% | −2.8% | −1.3% | −1.5% | 76% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 113 | 51% | +0.8% | −0.3% | +1.1% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 81 | 51% | +0.1% | +0.7% | −0.5% | 83% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 64 | 44% | −2.4% | −1.5% | −0.9% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 112 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.5% | +0.9% | 78% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 59 | 47% | −1.3% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 139 | 47% | −1.6% | −0.5% | −1.0% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 105 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 74 | 36% | −2.4% | −1.7% | −0.8% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 48 | 35% | −1.0% | −1.6% | +0.6% | 94% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 92 | 49% | −0.7% | −1.7% | +1.0% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 93 | 41% | −3.0% | −1.7% | −1.2% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 103 | 56% | +1.0% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 145 | 51% | +0.7% | +0.1% | +0.6% | 90% | 21 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 134 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.6% | +0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 67 | 49% | −0.8% | −1.5% | +0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 121 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 159 | 49% | −0.9% | −1.3% | +0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 136 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.7% | 89% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 121 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.7% | +0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 93 | 43% | −3.6% | −3.0% | −0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 95 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 110 | 47% | −1.7% | −1.2% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 142 | 44% | −2.3% | −1.3% | −0.9% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 107 | 46% | −2.3% | −1.8% | −0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 69 | 45% | −1.9% | −2.5% | +0.6% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 86 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.6% | +0.2% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 134 | 49% | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 86 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 100 | 46% | −1.8% | −1.2% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 127 | 50% | +0.3% | +0.3% | 0.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 142 | 46% | −1.0% | −0.8% | −0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 111 | 47% | −0.6% | −0.7% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 100 | 43% | −1.2% | −1.0% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 117 | 48% | −0.1% | −0.2% | +0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 108 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.0% | −0.2% | 95% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 80 | 45% | −2.8% | −2.7% | −0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 96 | 49% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 80 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.3% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 56 | 36% | −2.1% | −2.0% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 136 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.2% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 44 | 43% | −0.3% | −0.2% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 95 | 44% | −1.8% | −1.7% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 135 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.4% | −0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 119 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.4% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 109 | 45% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.