Pendle signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily PENDLE candle since 3 Jul 2023 (1,231 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
PENDLE price · last close$1.3814 Nov 2026 close: $1.38 (7d −15.9%)
RSI (14)23.1under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.21×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.3%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−82%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a green day | 19 | 68% | +6.3% | −0.3% | 51% | 45 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 25 | 44% | −4.9% | −0.3% | 62% | 45 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 19 | 68% | +5.4% | −0.3% | 59% | 44 | Weak evidence | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 33 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 94% | 43 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 19 | 37% | −3.7% | −0.3% | 79% | 40 | Weak evidence | 27 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 13 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.3% | 96% | 34 | No better than chance | 5 Jul 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 45 | 53% | +5.6% | −0.3% | 29% | 29 | No better than chance | 14 Sep 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 10 | 50% | −1.7% | −0.3% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 28 | 50% | −0.9% | −0.3% | 97% | 15 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 17 | 53% | +2.8% | −0.3% | 83% | 13 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 19 | 63% | +1.6% | −0.3% | 92% | 12 | No better than chance | 28 May 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 12 | 58% | +3.7% | −0.3% | 80% | 12 | No better than chance | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 19 | 53% | 0.0% | −0.3% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 12 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.3% | 99% | 7 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 7 | 29% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 87% | Too few cases | 24 Aug 2026 | |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 3 | 67% | +23.7% | −0.3% | 2.1% | Too few cases | 10 Oct 2025 | |
| Golden cross | 4 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 95% | Too few cases | 1 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 75% | +14.7% | −0.3% | 6.0% | Too few cases | 28 Jun 2026 | |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 8 | 50% | −4.9% | −0.3% | 41% | Too few cases | 5 Apr 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% rise in 3 days | 64 | 56% | +3.4% | −0.3% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence | 14 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 74 | 58% | +2.4% | −0.3% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence | 12 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 59 | 53% | +1.2% | −0.3% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 35 | 69% | +2.8% | −0.3% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 12 | 92% | +9.1% | −0.3% | 37% | 46 | Weak evidence | 10 Jun 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 14 | 71% | +7.2% | −0.3% | 48% | 44 | Weak evidence | 4 May 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 90 | 46% | −1.6% | −0.3% | 84% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 56 | 46% | −1.2% | −0.3% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 41 | 49% | −0.9% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 101 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 27 | 52% | +1.3% | −0.3% | 92% | 16 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 29 | 45% | −0.8% | −0.3% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 22 | 50% | +1.2% | −0.3% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 20 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.3% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 12 | 50% | −1.2% | −0.3% | 97% | 8 | No better than chance | 28 May 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 16 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.3% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance | 23 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 8 | 63% | +0.8% | −0.3% | 85% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 7 | 71% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 95% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 2 | 100% | +9.6% | −0.3% | 33% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 5 | 80% | +7.6% | −0.3% | 27% | Too few cases | 9 Aug 2025 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 7 | 57% | +7.6% | −0.3% | 21% | Too few cases | 8 May 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 20 | 45% | −5.2% | −0.3% | 64% | 18 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 28 | 50% | +0.6% | −0.3% | 96% | 15 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 100% | +0.4% | −0.3% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 4 | 25% | −3.8% | −0.3% | 65% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $1.56 | open |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.76 | −10.0% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $1.85 | −11.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $1.75 | −4.9% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $1.75 | −4.9% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $1.95 | −9.8% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $2.05 | −14.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.