Neo signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily NEO candle since 20 Nov 2017 (3,282 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
NEO price · last close$1.5214 Nov 2026 close: $1.52 (7d −18.5%)
RSI (14)21.8under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.45×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume41.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five green days in a row | 30 | 70% | +8.5% | −0.6% | 3.8% | 70 | Strong evidence · leans up | 5 Jan 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 40 | 33% | −5.2% | −0.6% | 27% | 55 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 72 | 38% | −2.8% | −0.6% | 56% | 50 | Weak evidence | 30 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 79 | 39% | −2.8% | −0.6% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 54 | 57% | +2.0% | −0.6% | 56% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 24 | 42% | −6.7% | −0.6% | 26% | 50 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 47 | 45% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence | 7 Jul 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 34 | 59% | +1.1% | −0.6% | 81% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 25 | 56% | +3.0% | −0.6% | 61% | 45 | Weak evidence | 19 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 25 | 36% | −3.6% | −0.6% | 69% | 44 | Weak evidence | 13 Jul 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 33 | 48% | −1.0% | −0.6% | 97% | 42 | Weak evidence | 10 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 52 | 44% | −2.1% | −0.6% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance | 11 May 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 86 | 45% | −2.1% | −0.6% | 68% | 23 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 43 | 51% | +0.9% | −0.6% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 72 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.6% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 53 | 49% | −0.8% | −0.6% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 41 | 44% | −0.7% | −0.6% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Golden cross | 8 | 25% | −5.2% | −0.6% | 28% | Too few cases | 19 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 7 | 57% | +1.6% | −0.6% | 63% | Too few cases | 12 Nov 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% rise in a day | 30 | 33% | −7.8% | −0.6% | 8.5% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans down | 7 Nov 2025 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 36 | 67% | +3.4% | −0.6% | 41% | 51 | Weak evidence | 7 Apr 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 15 | 60% | +7.2% | −0.6% | 29% | 48 | Weak evidence | 19 May 2022 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 30 | 53% | +2.6% | −0.6% | 61% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 5% rise in a day | 206 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.6% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 136 | 47% | −0.9% | −0.6% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 63 | 43% | −1.1% | −0.6% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 15 | 67% | +3.5% | −0.6% | 67% | 41 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 13 | 38% | −5.4% | −0.6% | 60% | 41 | Weak evidence | 3 Dec 2024 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 45 | 44% | −4.9% | −0.6% | 28% | 29 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 74 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.6% | 71% | 23 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 33 | 45% | −3.9% | −0.6% | 57% | 23 | No better than chance | 23 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 48 | 44% | −1.8% | −0.6% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance | 15 Dec 2024 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 70 | 53% | +0.4% | −0.6% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 91 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.6% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 135 | 46% | −1.5% | −0.6% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 134 | 49% | −1.0% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 208 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 95% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 24 | 58% | +3.4% | −0.6% | 53% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 129 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 9 | 22% | −9.9% | −0.6% | 4.4% | Too few cases | 3 Dec 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 128 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.6% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 110 | 45% | −1.6% | −0.6% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | −0.6% | 78% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 31 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 100% | 16 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Death cross | $1.78 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $1.86 | −4.3% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.99 | −5.9% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $2.09 | −6.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Golden cross | $2.22 | −5.6% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $2.26 | −6.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.