Immutable signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily IMX candle since 10 Jan 2022 (1,770 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
IMX price · last close$0.0969014 Nov 2026 close: $0.09690 (7d −19.5%)
RSI (14)21.9under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.60×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.6%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a green day | 30 | 63% | +5.1% | −1.7% | 24% | 55 | Some evidence · leans up | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 54 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.7% | 78% | 49 | Weak evidence | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 35 | 60% | +2.0% | −1.7% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 45 | 40% | −3.2% | −1.7% | 87% | 48 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 20 | 60% | +8.1% | −1.7% | 15% | 46 | Weak evidence | 6 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 34 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.7% | 90% | 45 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 14 | 64% | +4.3% | −1.7% | 56% | 43 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 12 | 67% | +3.5% | −1.7% | 68% | 40 | Weak evidence | 4 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 39 | 44% | −4.4% | −1.7% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 43 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.7% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 24 | 58% | +2.0% | −1.7% | 67% | 19 | No better than chance | 24 Jan 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 30 | 53% | +0.5% | −1.7% | 83% | 19 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 14 | 57% | +2.6% | −1.7% | 72% | 15 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 20 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.7% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 11 Jul 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 20 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.7% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance | 18 Aug 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 14 | 36% | −1.1% | −1.7% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance | 15 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 6 | 67% | +4.8% | −1.7% | 27% | Too few cases | 28 Sep 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 5 | 40% | −4.4% | −1.7% | 68% | Too few cases | 9 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 25% | −13.9% | −1.7% | 9.5% | Too few cases | 14 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% rise in 7 days | 19 | 68% | +8.8% | −1.7% | 14% | 72 | Strong evidence · leans up | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 88 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.7% | 52% | 50 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 123 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.7% | 72% | 48 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 88 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.7% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 42 | 43% | −0.5% | −1.7% | 92% | 47 | Weak evidence | 6 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 68 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.7% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 21 | 67% | +4.7% | −1.7% | 41% | 47 | Weak evidence | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 11 | 73% | +4.8% | −1.7% | 59% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 27 | 52% | +0.5% | −1.7% | 86% | 42 | Weak evidence | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 14 | 50% | +0.8% | −1.7% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 88 | 40% | −4.8% | −1.7% | 42% | 26 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 131 | 44% | −3.7% | −1.7% | 59% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 56 | 50% | +0.2% | −1.7% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 92 | 49% | −0.7% | −1.7% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 45 | 44% | −2.5% | −1.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 30 | 53% | +0.7% | −1.7% | 79% | 19 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 22 | 55% | +1.7% | −1.7% | 74% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 7 | 71% | +2.3% | −1.7% | 48% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 80% | +13.6% | −1.7% | 3.5% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 3 | 67% | +6.3% | −1.7% | 34% | Too few cases | 10 Nov 2023 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 9 | 78% | +8.9% | −1.7% | 4.2% | Too few cases | 9 Dec 2023 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 47 | 55% | +1.1% | −1.7% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 38 | 42% | −3.4% | −1.7% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 5 | 60% | +2.0% | −1.7% | 58% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 7 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 95% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1167 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.1204 | −19.5% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1209 | −0.7% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.1231 | −2.2% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.1262 | −5.2% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.1262 | −5.2% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1290 | −11.6% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1518 | −8.4% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.1569 | −10.0% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.