Sui signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily SUI candle since 3 May 2023 (1,292 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 4 signals did no better than picking days at random.
SUI price · last close$0.701114 Nov 2026 close: $0.7011 (7d −18.2%)
RSI (14)27.2under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.36×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume43.4%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−87%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme sell pressure | 35 | 40% | −5.0% | −1.5% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 15 | 60% | +4.5% | −1.5% | 50% | 44 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 17 | 71% | +9.1% | −1.5% | 15% | 43 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 15 | 60% | +3.5% | −1.5% | 59% | 42 | Weak evidence | 2 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 29 | 41% | −0.9% | −1.5% | 96% | 41 | Weak evidence | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 12 | 58% | +3.7% | −1.5% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence | 12 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 16 | 56% | +2.2% | −1.5% | 71% | 40 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 12 | 67% | +11.0% | −1.5% | 16% | 40 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 14 | 57% | +1.9% | −1.5% | 76% | 38 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 16 | 56% | +1.2% | −1.5% | 81% | 38 | Weak evidence | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 12 | 25% | −5.4% | −1.5% | 74% | 38 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 40 | 53% | +1.4% | −1.5% | 62% | 26 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 19 | 53% | +4.5% | −1.5% | 42% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 17 | 65% | +2.6% | −1.5% | 65% | 16 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 20 | 40% | −1.9% | −1.5% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 25 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 7 | 57% | +0.7% | −1.5% | 67% | Too few cases | 22 Aug 2026 | |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 4 | 75% | +7.1% | −1.5% | 19% | Too few cases | 28 Sep 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 5 | 40% | −6.0% | −1.5% | 44% | Too few cases | 3 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 75% | +3.3% | −1.5% | 46% | Too few cases | 21 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% drop in a day | 82 | 38% | −3.7% | −1.5% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 38 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.5% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 56 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.5% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 12 | 75% | +5.4% | −1.5% | 47% | 44 | Weak evidence | 9 Jun 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 19 | 53% | +1.8% | −1.5% | 73% | 41 | Weak evidence | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 60 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.5% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 48 | 46% | −1.0% | −1.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 85 | 49% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 67 | 49% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 31 | 55% | +0.8% | −1.5% | 78% | 20 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 32 | 47% | −0.5% | −1.5% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 25 | 56% | +1.4% | −1.5% | 73% | 18 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 18 | 56% | +1.2% | −1.5% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 17 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.5% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 15 | 53% | +0.9% | −1.5% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 6 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.5% | 91% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 6 | 67% | +6.0% | −1.5% | 17% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 3 | 100% | +23.7% | −1.5% | 1.2% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 2 | 100% | +2.6% | −1.5% | 64% | Too few cases | 12 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 4 | 50% | −1.9% | −1.5% | 95% | Too few cases | 24 Apr 2025 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 7 | 71% | +3.5% | −1.5% | 31% | Too few cases | 8 May 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 21 | 38% | −4.2% | −1.5% | 78% | 16 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 30 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.5% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 100% | +4.5% | −1.5% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 4 | 50% | +4.6% | −1.5% | 34% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.8569 | −18.2% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.9184 | −5.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.9205 | −2.2% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.