When Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day: what each coin did next
We counted every time it happened on 93 major coins, 6,479 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence4 of 934 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance36 of 93coins
Scored cases6,479since 2017
The rule. Bitcoin's daily close is at least 5% above its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiliz | 92 | 66% | +3.5% | −0.7% | +4.2% | 11% | 80 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Reserve Rights | 77 | 56% | +4.6% | −1.3% | +6.0% | 14% | 77 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Polymesh | 34 | 59% | +4.1% | −1.6% | +5.6% | 19% | 65 | Some evidence · leans up |
 NEAR Protocol | 75 | 55% | +4.2% | −0.6% | +4.9% | 22% | 58 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Gala | 49 | 55% | +1.2% | −3.0% | +4.2% | 37% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 73 | 58% | +2.8% | −1.2% | +4.0% | 27% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 77 | 57% | +3.5% | −0.5% | +4.0% | 30% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 77 | 60% | +3.8% | −0.4% | +4.2% | 31% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 52 | 62% | +1.9% | −0.5% | +2.3% | 39% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 106 | 60% | +3.2% | +0.1% | +3.1% | 29% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 77 | 53% | +2.0% | −1.0% | +2.9% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 87 | 59% | +2.4% | −0.6% | +3.0% | 29% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 77 | 57% | +3.2% | −0.3% | +3.6% | 36% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 68 | 51% | +1.7% | −1.3% | +3.0% | 47% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 34 | 62% | +2.6% | −1.5% | +4.2% | 43% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 40 | 53% | +1.2% | −1.4% | +2.6% | 71% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 74 | 55% | +3.3% | −0.1% | +3.4% | 46% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 47 | 55% | +1.1% | −1.7% | +2.8% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 56 | 54% | +1.9% | −1.2% | +3.0% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 77 | 56% | +1.3% | −0.4% | +1.7% | 45% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 114 | 53% | +0.5% | −1.1% | +1.7% | 48% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 91 | 52% | +0.8% | −1.2% | +2.0% | 58% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 105 | 55% | +1.2% | −1.2% | +2.4% | 57% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 97 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 77 | 56% | +2.0% | +0.6% | +1.3% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 77 | 55% | +1.8% | −0.7% | +2.5% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 69 | 51% | +0.5% | −1.8% | +2.3% | 66% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 92 | 51% | +0.3% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 100 | 51% | +0.5% | −0.9% | +1.3% | 72% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 75 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.1% | +1.4% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 30 | 57% | +2.1% | −1.7% | +3.8% | 52% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 63 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.8% | +1.8% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 27 | 56% | +2.8% | −2.2% | +5.1% | 43% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 112 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.8% | +1.5% | 60% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 128 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.6% | +1.2% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 90 | 54% | +0.6% | −0.2% | +0.8% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 63 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.0% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 77 | 49% | −0.1% | −1.3% | +1.3% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 44 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.7% | +1.0% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 35 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.6% | +1.7% | 77% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 55 | 49% | −0.7% | −1.5% | +0.8% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 85 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 77 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.3% | +0.3% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 104 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.5% | +0.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 95 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.0% | +0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 74 | 49% | −0.6% | −1.2% | +0.6% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 42 | 48% | −0.5% | −0.3% | −0.2% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 72 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.4% | +0.6% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 126 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.2% | +0.2% | 97% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 30 | 60% | +1.9% | −1.4% | +3.3% | 68% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 50 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 30 | 37% | −1.9% | −0.2% | −1.8% | 71% | 45 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 30 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.9% | +2.1% | 74% | 44 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 28 | 50% | −0.3% | −2.7% | +2.5% | 79% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 24 | 58% | +3.0% | −0.5% | +3.5% | 71% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 27 | 48% | −0.4% | −2.0% | +1.6% | 87% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 25 | 44% | −2.5% | −3.4% | +0.9% | 94% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 57 | 53% | +2.3% | −1.2% | +3.5% | 45% | 26 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 72 | 56% | +2.6% | −0.4% | +3.0% | 37% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 57 | 51% | +1.0% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 63% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 60 | 52% | +1.4% | −1.6% | +3.0% | 53% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 103 | 50% | +2.2% | −0.6% | +2.8% | 40% | 25 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 130 | 58% | +1.8% | +0.5% | +1.3% | 50% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 91 | 55% | +1.4% | −0.6% | +2.0% | 54% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 41 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +2.0% | 80% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 91 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.6% | +1.7% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 48 | 50% | +0.2% | −1.3% | +1.5% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 136 | 53% | +1.0% | +0.3% | +0.7% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 76 | 51% | +0.4% | −0.7% | +1.1% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 114 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.0% | +0.7% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 52 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.3% | +0.9% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 48 | 38% | −2.8% | −2.2% | −0.5% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 104 | 51% | +0.8% | −0.1% | +1.0% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 94 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.0% | +0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 117 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 77 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.4% | +0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 104 | 51% | +0.5% | +0.1% | +0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 58 | 43% | −1.0% | −1.5% | +0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 48 | 46% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 48 | 46% | −1.8% | −1.1% | −0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 49 | 49% | −0.6% | −0.9% | +0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 57 | 49% | −1.2% | −1.7% | +0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 116 | 44% | −0.8% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 114 | 55% | +0.7% | +0.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 75 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.1% | +0.3% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 52 | 44% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 52 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.9% | +0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 114 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 25 | 52% | +0.3% | −2.7% | +3.0% | 79% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 28 | 46% | −1.1% | −2.5% | +1.5% | 91% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 30 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.5% | +0.1% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 28 | 50% | +0.6% | −0.3% | +0.9% | 96% | 15 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 24 | 46% | −0.1% | −1.9% | +1.8% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.