After a 20% rise in 3 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,988 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence10 of 931 lean up · 9 lean down
No better than chance45 of 93coins
Scored cases2,988since 2017
The rule. Close at least 20% above the close 3 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TRON | 23 | 30% | −6.1% | +0.7% | −6.8% | 2.8% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 24 | 29% | −13.0% | −1.5% | −11.5% | 3.1% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 20 | 10% | −14.5% | −0.9% | −13.6% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 20 | 10% | −14.7% | −0.5% | −14.2% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 JUST | 18 | 11% | −14.0% | +0.6% | −14.7% | 1.9% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 ORDI | 19 | 32% | −13.1% | −1.9% | −11.2% | 12% | 75 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Dogecoin | 35 | 37% | −5.3% | −1.0% | −4.4% | 21% | 61 | Some evidence · leans down |
 BNB | 28 | 54% | +5.0% | +0.5% | +4.6% | 22% | 58 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin Cash | 22 | 36% | −6.4% | −0.2% | −6.2% | 22% | 57 | Some evidence · leans down |
 ConstitutionDAO | 44 | 36% | −6.9% | −1.3% | −5.6% | 25% | 55 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Horizen | 52 | 35% | −5.7% | −0.7% | −5.0% | 28% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 41 | 61% | +6.4% | −0.3% | +6.7% | 15% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 41 | 37% | −5.3% | −1.0% | −4.3% | 41% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 39 | 36% | −6.1% | −1.6% | −4.6% | 40% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 41 | 44% | −3.7% | −0.9% | −2.9% | 59% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 47 | 36% | −4.2% | −0.4% | −3.8% | 57% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 28 | 36% | −6.2% | −0.4% | −5.8% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 33 | 33% | −5.7% | −0.8% | −4.9% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 30 | 37% | −6.4% | −1.3% | −5.1% | 33% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 22 | 32% | −7.0% | −1.5% | −5.5% | 25% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 35 | 57% | +3.1% | −0.4% | +3.6% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 53 | 43% | −2.7% | −0.5% | −2.2% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 30 | 40% | −6.1% | −1.4% | −4.7% | 47% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 25 | 64% | +5.1% | −1.4% | +6.5% | 40% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 47 | 49% | −1.9% | −0.1% | −1.8% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 45 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.4% | +1.5% | 85% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 30 | 33% | −5.0% | −1.3% | −3.7% | 47% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 25 | 68% | +4.3% | +0.3% | +4.0% | 44% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 44 | 43% | −2.4% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 38 | 39% | −2.5% | −0.7% | −1.8% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 39 | 59% | +0.7% | +0.1% | +0.6% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 35 | 46% | −2.3% | −0.7% | −1.6% | 83% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 30 | 50% | −2.0% | −0.1% | −1.9% | 79% | 44 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 28 | 36% | −4.4% | −1.7% | −2.7% | 72% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 15 | 40% | −7.3% | −2.0% | −5.4% | 56% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 23 | 57% | +1.8% | −1.3% | +3.1% | 71% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 29 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 87% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 28 | 50% | +0.4% | −1.1% | +1.5% | 87% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 22 | 36% | −6.5% | −2.7% | −3.8% | 71% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 30 | 43% | −2.3% | −1.2% | −1.1% | 93% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 27 | 52% | +0.5% | −1.7% | +2.1% | 86% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 13 | 77% | +3.3% | +0.5% | +2.8% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 19 | 53% | +1.8% | −1.5% | +3.3% | 73% | 41 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 27 | 44% | −3.5% | −1.9% | −1.6% | 84% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 16 | 50% | +1.2% | −1.3% | +2.6% | 70% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 20 | 30% | −3.8% | −1.7% | −2.1% | 85% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 19 | 47% | −0.5% | −2.5% | +2.1% | 87% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 15 | 33% | −3.3% | −2.2% | −1.0% | 91% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 23 | 57% | +4.3% | −0.4% | +4.6% | 22% | 32 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 45 | 44% | −4.9% | −0.6% | −4.3% | 28% | 29 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 49 | 53% | +2.7% | −0.8% | +3.5% | 40% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 46 | 57% | +1.9% | −0.8% | +2.7% | 53% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 39 | 41% | −4.2% | −1.2% | −3.1% | 52% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 34 | 38% | −6.6% | −1.7% | −4.9% | 34% | 26 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 30 | 53% | +3.6% | −2.7% | +6.3% | 35% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 38 | 45% | −3.9% | −1.2% | −2.8% | 60% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 41 | 54% | +1.3% | −1.2% | +2.5% | 70% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 47 | 57% | +2.0% | −0.6% | +2.6% | 66% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 52 | 52% | +2.6% | +0.1% | +2.4% | 68% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 49 | 41% | −4.2% | −1.3% | −2.9% | 70% | 24 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 47 | 40% | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.7% | 85% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 28 | 36% | −6.3% | −1.2% | −5.1% | 48% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 74 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.2% | +1.0% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 40 | 45% | −2.3% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 42 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 28 | 46% | −4.2% | −0.6% | −3.6% | 54% | 22 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 50 | 48% | −1.7% | −0.3% | −1.4% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 34 | 53% | +1.5% | −0.8% | +2.3% | 70% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 40 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 59 | 44% | −2.0% | −1.3% | −0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 50 | 48% | −1.2% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 30 | 50% | +1.0% | −1.1% | +2.2% | 70% | 20 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 34 | 53% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +1.5% | 82% | 20 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 45 | 49% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 33 | 42% | −1.4% | −0.2% | −1.2% | 86% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 37 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.5% | +0.3% | 98% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 16 | 56% | +3.3% | −1.7% | +5.1% | 53% | 18 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 32 | 41% | −2.9% | −1.8% | −1.1% | 92% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 34 | 44% | −0.3% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 22 | 50% | +1.6% | −0.8% | +2.4% | 73% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 22 | 50% | −2.4% | −0.2% | −2.2% | 69% | 17 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 30 | 43% | −0.5% | −0.8% | +0.3% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 30 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.0% | +0.3% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 20 | 35% | −4.2% | −1.5% | −2.7% | 78% | 15 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 21 | 52% | +0.8% | −1.7% | +2.5% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 25 | 44% | −1.3% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 27 | 37% | −3.2% | −3.0% | −0.2% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 17 | 41% | −6.4% | −3.4% | −3.0% | 78% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 22 | 50% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +1.5% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 24 | 42% | −1.6% | −1.1% | −0.5% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 14 | 36% | −2.4% | −0.5% | −1.9% | 92% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 17 | 35% | −1.8% | −1.6% | −0.2% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 14 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.6% | −0.4% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 3 | 33% | −4.1% | −0.3% | −3.8% | 31% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.