Ravencoin signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily RVN candle since 25 Sep 2019 (2,608 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
RVN price · last close$0.0010714 Nov 2026 close: $0.00107 (7d −17.8%)
RSI (14)28.2under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.08×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume49.4%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in a week | 40 | 63% | +4.1% | −1.3% | 12% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 58 | 36% | −3.8% | −1.3% | 52% | 51 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 52 | 40% | −2.7% | −1.3% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 36 | 56% | +1.0% | −1.3% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 24 | 33% | −6.0% | −1.3% | 39% | 47 | Weak evidence | 9 Jun 2025 |
| Five red days in a row | 31 | 55% | +1.0% | −1.3% | 70% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 27 | 41% | −3.3% | −1.3% | 79% | 43 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 20 | 60% | +2.2% | −1.3% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence | 3 May 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 20 | 40% | −3.7% | −1.3% | 77% | 40 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 68 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 56 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.3% | 83% | 23 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 27 | 56% | +2.5% | −1.3% | 48% | 22 | No better than chance | 15 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 36 | 42% | −2.5% | −1.3% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance | 19 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 72 | 40% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 2 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 29 | 48% | −1.6% | −1.3% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 26 | 42% | −1.0% | −1.3% | 98% | 14 | No better than chance | 13 Sep 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 18 | 44% | −3.5% | −1.3% | 80% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2025 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 22% | −4.8% | −1.3% | 35% | Too few cases | 11 Jul 2025 | |
| Death cross | 9 | 33% | −4.1% | −1.3% | 46% | Too few cases | 28 Sep 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 7 days | 49 | 39% | −7.1% | −1.3% | 6.8% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 15 | 80% | +7.9% | −1.3% | 14% | 69 | Some evidence · leans up | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 26 | 42% | −6.6% | −1.3% | 30% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2025 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 30 | 33% | −5.0% | −1.3% | 47% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 68 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 101 | 44% | −1.0% | −1.3% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 28 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 10 | 50% | +3.3% | −1.3% | 63% | 25 | No better than chance | 9 Jun 2025 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 105 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.3% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 63 | 46% | −0.6% | −1.3% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 171 | 47% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 114 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 51 | 43% | −1.6% | −1.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 157 | 42% | −1.6% | −1.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 109 | 45% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 13 | 54% | +4.4% | −1.3% | 48% | 19 | No better than chance | 3 Dec 2024 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 26 | 46% | −3.6% | −1.3% | 74% | 18 | No better than chance | 7 Jun 2025 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 25 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.3% | 83% | 16 | No better than chance | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 28 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance | 11 Jun 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 19 | 37% | −3.9% | −1.3% | 76% | 15 | No better than chance | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 26 | 38% | −0.7% | −1.3% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 8 | 63% | +6.0% | −1.3% | 8.4% | Too few cases | 12 Oct 2022 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 92 | 51% | +0.3% | −1.3% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 13 | 77% | +3.5% | −1.3% | 58% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 74 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 18 | 50% | +0.6% | −1.3% | 84% | 13 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.00136 | −9.4% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.00124 | −1.6% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00124 | −1.6% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.00141 | −7.1% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.