Quant signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily QNT candle since 29 Jul 2021 (1,935 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 5 signals did no better than picking days at random.
QNT price · last close$143.614 Nov 2026 close: $143.6 (7d −26.8%)
RSI (14)30.5between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.99×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−67%above the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI drops below 30 | 17 | 59% | +5.5% | −1.3% | 18% | 63 | Some evidence · leans up | 18 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 47 | 34% | −3.7% | −1.3% | 47% | 52 | Weak evidence | 10 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 23 | 57% | +3.1% | −1.3% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 23 | 61% | +2.8% | −1.3% | 36% | 48 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 47 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.3% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 30 | 63% | +1.0% | −1.3% | 60% | 46 | Weak evidence | 1 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 29 | 48% | −0.2% | −1.3% | 84% | 43 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 18 | 50% | +1.6% | −1.3% | 61% | 42 | Weak evidence | 16 May 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 15 | 67% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence | 13 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 12 | 50% | +1.5% | −1.3% | 73% | 39 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 14 | 57% | +0.7% | −1.3% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence | 9 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 10 | 50% | +6.4% | −1.3% | 27% | 30 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 28 | 54% | +1.7% | −1.3% | 49% | 22 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 33 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.3% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 22 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.3% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 16 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.3% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance | 14 Jul 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 7 | 71% | +13.9% | −1.3% | 0.3% | Too few cases | 28 Sep 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 6 | 17% | −7.9% | −1.3% | 9.8% | Too few cases | 27 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 60% | +0.2% | −1.3% | 68% | Too few cases | 16 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% drop in a day | 55 | 53% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 38% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 74 | 38% | −3.4% | −1.3% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 56 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | 66% | 49 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 32 | 59% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 70 | 44% | −0.5% | −1.3% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 14 | 57% | +3.3% | −1.3% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 25 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.3% | 75% | 42 | Weak evidence | 23 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 14 | 57% | +2.0% | −1.3% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence | 1 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 16 | 50% | +1.2% | −1.3% | 70% | 40 | Weak evidence | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 26 | 46% | −0.5% | −1.3% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence | 29 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 15 | 67% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 18 | 56% | +3.3% | −1.3% | 36% | 22 | No better than chance | 27 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 94 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 103 | 42% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 10 | 50% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 5 | 80% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 54% | Too few cases | 28 Sep 2026 | |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 5 | 80% | +4.6% | −1.3% | 18% | Too few cases | 9 Nov 2022 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 3 | 67% | +0.5% | −1.3% | 72% | Too few cases | 9 Nov 2022 | |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 8 | 75% | +5.4% | −1.3% | 5.8% | Too few cases | 21 Nov 2022 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 1 | 100% | +16.2% | −1.3% | – | Too few cases | 26 Jan 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 6 | 67% | +6.2% | −1.3% | 6.5% | Too few cases | 2 Oct 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 48 | 38% | −2.7% | −1.3% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 52 | 44% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 7 | 71% | +5.4% | −1.3% | 7.6% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 50% | +0.4% | −1.3% | 59% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $163.9 | open |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $194.1 | −17.6% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $201.7 | −3.4% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $192.3 | +0.9% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.