ORDI signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ORDI candle since 7 Nov 2023 (1,104 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 11 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ORDI price · last close$2.6914 Nov 2026 close: $2.69 (7d −16.4%)
RSI (14)25.7under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.04×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.9%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−97%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a green day | 12 | 33% | −8.9% | −1.9% | 52% | 43 | Weak evidence | 20 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 26 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.9% | 74% | 43 | Weak evidence | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 24 | 38% | −4.0% | −1.9% | 86% | 41 | Weak evidence | 9 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 13 | 23% | −4.2% | −1.9% | 90% | 35 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 12 | 33% | −1.1% | −1.9% | 97% | 33 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 10 | 50% | +5.5% | −1.9% | 53% | 28 | No better than chance | 25 Jul 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 43 | 35% | −4.5% | −1.9% | 71% | 25 | No better than chance | 20 Aug 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 10 | 30% | −7.7% | −1.9% | 66% | 25 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 11 | 36% | −11.6% | −1.9% | 37% | 21 | No better than chance | 20 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 10 | 50% | +0.4% | −1.9% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 35 | 43% | −1.7% | −1.9% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 28 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.9% | 90% | 17 | No better than chance | 8 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 26 | 46% | −1.9% | −1.9% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 20 | 40% | −3.2% | −1.9% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 12 | 33% | −1.9% | −1.9% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 9 | 33% | −2.5% | −1.9% | 93% | Too few cases | 22 Aug 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 4 | 50% | −3.2% | −1.9% | 85% | Too few cases | 2 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 33% | −5.9% | −1.9% | 60% | Too few cases | 1 Jul 2026 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 3 | 0% | −15.3% | −1.9% | 14% | Too few cases | 21 Aug 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 3 days | 19 | 32% | −13.1% | −1.9% | 12% | 75 | Strong evidence · leans down | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 23 | 30% | −10.2% | −1.9% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence | 29 Jun 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 59 | 34% | −6.2% | −1.9% | 32% | 52 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 87 | 40% | −2.5% | −1.9% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 26 | 31% | −6.6% | −1.9% | 52% | 46 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 19 | 53% | +4.2% | −1.9% | 47% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 18 | 33% | −8.3% | −1.9% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence | 14 May 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 17 | 53% | +2.0% | −1.9% | 71% | 40 | Weak evidence | 19 Apr 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 70 | 37% | −3.6% | −1.9% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 63 | 40% | −2.5% | −1.9% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 61 | 48% | −1.1% | −1.9% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 44 | 48% | −1.5% | −1.9% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 40 | 48% | −1.1% | −1.9% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 87 | 41% | −2.2% | −1.9% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 16 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 37 | 38% | −1.9% | −1.9% | 100% | 19 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 14 | 36% | −4.6% | −1.9% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 11 | 45% | −1.8% | −1.9% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 9 | 56% | +10.1% | −1.9% | 3.4% | Too few cases | 23 Apr 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 8 | 63% | +5.8% | −1.9% | 14% | Too few cases | 3 Nov 2025 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 4 | 0% | −17.9% | −1.9% | 3.6% | Too few cases | 16 Apr 2026 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 8 | 50% | −3.7% | −1.9% | 72% | Too few cases | 9 May 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 24 | 46% | −0.1% | −1.9% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 19 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.9% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 100% | +11.7% | −1.9% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 3 | 0% | −3.7% | −1.9% | 83% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $3.18 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $3.22 | −16.4% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $3.29 | −4.1% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $3.14 | +1.1% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $3.14 | +1.1% |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $3.44 | −7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $3.52 | −6.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $3.67 | −6.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $3.74 | −3.8% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $3.74 | −3.8% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $3.71 | −4.8% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.