Oasis signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ROSE candle since 19 Nov 2020 (2,187 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ROSE price · last close$0.0045414 Nov 2026 close: $0.00454 (7d −19.9%)
RSI (14)23.4under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.41×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a red day | 12 | 75% | +17.9% | −1.4% | 4.0% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up | 20 Jan 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 46 | 35% | −4.9% | −1.4% | 56% | 51 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 51 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.4% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 17 | 59% | +8.8% | −1.4% | 25% | 49 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 60 | 32% | −3.4% | −1.4% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 31 | 55% | +1.1% | −1.4% | 78% | 45 | Weak evidence | 1 Mar 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 21 | 29% | −5.4% | −1.4% | 69% | 42 | Weak evidence | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 21 | 62% | +2.1% | −1.4% | 74% | 41 | Weak evidence | 4 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 52 | 42% | −0.4% | −1.4% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 17 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 62 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.4% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 39 | 46% | −1.5% | −1.4% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 36 | 44% | −2.7% | −1.4% | 90% | 20 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 20 | 60% | +3.0% | −1.4% | 65% | 17 | No better than chance | 11 Sep 2025 |
| Five red days in a row | 31 | 45% | −1.1% | −1.4% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 25 | 48% | −1.6% | −1.4% | 99% | 13 | No better than chance | 16 Apr 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 22 | 36% | −2.9% | −1.4% | 92% | 13 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 9 | 67% | +4.7% | −1.4% | 25% | Too few cases | 20 Jan 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 5 | 0% | −9.2% | −1.4% | 25% | Too few cases | 20 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 80% | +11.0% | −1.4% | 9.1% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% rise in 30 days | 12 | 17% | −20.5% | −1.4% | 4.6% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down | 30 Jan 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 51 | 29% | −4.5% | −1.4% | 63% | 50 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 66 | 36% | −4.4% | −1.4% | 56% | 50 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 59 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.4% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 112 | 39% | −3.3% | −1.4% | 62% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 70 | 33% | −3.3% | −1.4% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 157 | 50% | +0.2% | −1.4% | 60% | 48 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 45 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.4% | 85% | 48 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 28 | 32% | −2.5% | −1.4% | 93% | 41 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 12 | 33% | −5.4% | −1.4% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence | 19 Jan 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 16 | 31% | −3.9% | −1.4% | 86% | 37 | Weak evidence | 20 Jan 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 50 | 52% | +3.7% | −1.4% | 28% | 29 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 162 | 42% | −2.4% | −1.4% | 78% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 97 | 41% | −1.6% | −1.4% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 119 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.4% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 107 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.4% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 40% | −3.8% | −1.4% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 32 | 47% | −1.3% | −1.4% | 100% | 16 | No better than chance | 27 Jan 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 28 | 39% | −2.7% | −1.4% | 91% | 16 | No better than chance | 19 Jan 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 27 | 37% | −1.5% | −1.4% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 9 | 22% | −4.8% | −1.4% | 52% | Too few cases | 4 Feb 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 61 | 30% | −7.4% | −1.4% | 12% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans down | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 72 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 12 | 33% | −6.7% | −1.4% | 68% | 40 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 18% | −5.4% | −1.4% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00519 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00567 | −19.9% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00579 | −6.7% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.00664 | −12.8% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Golden cross | $0.00751 | −9.2% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00757 | −8.3% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.