Lisk signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily LSK candle since 6 Feb 2020 (2,474 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
LSK price · last close$0.138514 Nov 2026 close: $0.1385 (7d −23.0%)
RSI (14)34.7between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.25×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume43.5%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 40 | 40% | −4.7% | −0.6% | 35% | 54 | Weak evidence | 29 May 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 63 | 32% | −3.7% | −0.6% | 36% | 52 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 28 | 64% | +4.9% | −0.6% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence | 9 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 51 | 37% | −2.3% | −0.6% | 75% | 49 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 41 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.6% | 78% | 49 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 15 | 33% | −7.4% | −0.6% | 34% | 47 | Weak evidence | 1 Nov 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 16 | 63% | +5.3% | −0.6% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence | 11 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 38 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.6% | 95% | 45 | Weak evidence | 21 Apr 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 24 | 38% | −4.3% | −0.6% | 57% | 45 | Weak evidence | 9 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 30 | 57% | +1.5% | −0.6% | 75% | 45 | Weak evidence | 12 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 19 | 37% | −1.8% | −0.6% | 93% | 37 | Weak evidence | 12 Mar 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 31 | 42% | −3.6% | −0.6% | 62% | 22 | No better than chance | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 61 | 46% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 59 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 24 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 53 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 27 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.6% | 100% | 14 | No better than chance | 28 Jul 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 16 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.6% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance | 29 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 6 | 33% | −7.6% | −0.6% | 15% | Too few cases | 14 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 6 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.6% | 80% | Too few cases | 8 Feb 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% rise in 7 days | 26 | 35% | −6.5% | −0.6% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 46 | 41% | −2.3% | −0.6% | 75% | 49 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 92 | 42% | −1.4% | −0.6% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 146 | 45% | −1.0% | −0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 24 | 38% | −4.8% | −0.6% | 50% | 46 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 60% | +8.6% | −0.6% | 28% | 30 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 160 | 42% | −2.2% | −0.6% | 49% | 24 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 99 | 42% | −2.1% | −0.6% | 65% | 23 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 71 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.6% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 44 | 43% | −2.1% | −0.6% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 102 | 41% | −1.6% | −0.6% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 28 | 46% | −4.2% | −0.6% | 54% | 22 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 13 | 38% | −9.2% | −0.6% | 26% | 22 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 28 | 43% | −4.0% | −0.6% | 57% | 21 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 86 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 48 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 3 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 26 | 42% | −3.4% | −0.6% | 68% | 19 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 23 | 43% | −3.6% | −0.6% | 70% | 18 | No better than chance | 27 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 28 | 46% | −1.2% | −0.6% | 96% | 15 | No better than chance | 7 Oct 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 7 | 57% | +12.5% | −0.6% | 1.3% | Too few cases | 24 Oct 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 9 | 33% | −18.2% | −0.6% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | 12 Sep 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 87 | 59% | +2.4% | −0.6% | 29% | 51 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 13 | 69% | +3.7% | −0.6% | 66% | 41 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 17 | 53% | +2.3% | −0.6% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 71 | 51% | +0.4% | −0.6% | 84% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1693 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.1798 | −23.0% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | $0.2025 | −16.0% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.2025 | −16.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.1907 | −1.2% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.1907 | −1.2% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1700 | +44.2% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.1700 | +44.2% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1700 | +44.2% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1831 | −12.3% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.2177 | −21.9% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.2000 | −7.8% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.