Horizen signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ZEN candle since 6 Jul 2020 (2,323 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ZEN price · last close$4.0214 Nov 2026 close: $4.02 (7d −21.3%)
RSI (14)25.2under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.32×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 44 | 36% | −4.4% | −0.7% | 53% | 52 | Weak evidence | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 81 | 41% | −3.4% | −0.7% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 30 | 40% | −5.8% | −0.7% | 44% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 24 | 29% | −6.8% | −0.7% | 38% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 48 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.7% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 13 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 25 | 64% | +3.2% | −0.7% | 65% | 44 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 17 | 59% | +2.5% | −0.7% | 80% | 39 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 20 | 60% | +1.0% | −0.7% | 91% | 38 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 42 | 40% | −2.1% | −0.7% | 88% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 39 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.7% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 31 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 62 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.7% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 40 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Jul 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 69 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 23 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.7% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance | 23 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 15 | 53% | +2.6% | −0.7% | 81% | 13 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2025 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 20 | 55% | +0.3% | −0.7% | 95% | 12 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 21 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 100% | 11 | No better than chance | 26 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 8 | 75% | +4.2% | −0.7% | 36% | Too few cases | 19 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 88% | +7.7% | −0.7% | 12% | Too few cases | 8 Jan 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 7 days | 72 | 42% | −6.0% | −0.7% | 14% | 77 | Strong evidence · leans down | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 35 | 37% | −7.3% | −0.7% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 52 | 35% | −5.7% | −0.7% | 28% | 54 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 40 | 40% | −4.4% | −0.7% | 55% | 51 | Weak evidence | 4 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 116 | 43% | −2.9% | −0.7% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 83 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.7% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 29 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 122 | 44% | −2.0% | −0.7% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 160 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.7% | 90% | 46 | Weak evidence | 30 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 17 | 59% | +6.1% | −0.7% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 23 | 39% | −3.4% | −0.7% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence | 6 Jun 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 23 | 48% | −3.3% | −0.7% | 82% | 41 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2025 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 10 | 60% | +4.4% | −0.7% | 72% | 24 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2025 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 55 | 42% | −2.6% | −0.7% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 51 | 51% | +0.5% | −0.7% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 67 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.7% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 30 Jun 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 121 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 16 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 169 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 124 | 49% | −0.7% | −0.7% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 29 | 48% | −0.5% | −0.7% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 25 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.7% | 97% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 9 | 56% | +6.3% | −0.7% | 17% | Too few cases | 15 Feb 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 55% | +1.8% | −0.7% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 38% | −3.4% | −0.7% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 63 | 48% | −1.8% | −0.7% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 12 | 58% | +2.1% | −0.7% | 86% | 11 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $5.44 | −11.6% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $5.30 | −8.3% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.