Ethereum Classic signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ETC candle since 12 Jun 2018 (3,078 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ETC price · last close$5.8114 Nov 2026 close: $5.81 (7d −15.9%)
RSI (14)25.8under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.30×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume51.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−97%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in a week | 35 | 63% | +3.0% | −1.0% | 28% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 54 | 30% | −3.6% | −1.0% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 54 | 57% | +1.5% | −1.0% | 42% | 51 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 37 | 62% | +2.0% | −1.0% | 45% | 51 | Weak evidence | 16 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 37 | 54% | +1.7% | −1.0% | 51% | 50 | Weak evidence | 23 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 64 | 42% | −2.0% | −1.0% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 69 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 23 | 57% | +2.4% | −1.0% | 53% | 45 | Weak evidence | 12 Aug 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 34 | 41% | −1.7% | −1.0% | 92% | 44 | Weak evidence | 5 Jan 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 24 | 58% | +1.5% | −1.0% | 65% | 43 | Weak evidence | 2 May 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 29 | 48% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 91% | 41 | Weak evidence | 23 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 59 | 42% | −2.7% | −1.0% | 63% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 51 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.0% | 80% | 23 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Death cross | 10 | 40% | −4.2% | −1.0% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance | 24 Oct 2025 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 81 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.0% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 40 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 34 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 24 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.0% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 11 | 36% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 62 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.0% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence | 15 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 44 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 92 | 49% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 43 | 44% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 51 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.0% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 28 | 36% | −3.4% | −1.0% | 62% | 45 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 29 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.0% | 87% | 42 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 70% | +5.1% | −1.0% | 45% | 30 | No better than chance | 13 Jun 2022 |
| 5% rise in a day | 169 | 43% | −1.9% | −1.0% | 68% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 171 | 45% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 94% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 107 | 45% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 108 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 95% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 101 | 48% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 38 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.0% | 94% | 20 | No better than chance | 20 Jul 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 18 | 56% | +3.2% | −1.0% | 48% | 19 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 29 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.0% | 84% | 18 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 17 | 41% | −4.2% | −1.0% | 63% | 16 | No better than chance | 14 Oct 2022 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 18 | 44% | −3.5% | −1.0% | 71% | 15 | No better than chance | 4 Dec 2024 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 11 | 45% | −3.8% | −1.0% | 77% | 12 | No better than chance | 28 Jul 2022 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 8 | 63% | +4.1% | −1.0% | 16% | Too few cases | 12 May 2022 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 94 | 39% | −2.6% | −1.0% | 49% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 17 | 53% | +2.4% | −1.0% | 60% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 114 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 25 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.0% | 90% | 15 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $6.66 | open |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $6.61 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $6.86 | −2.9% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $7.34 | −9.9% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $7.10 | −2.7% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $7.59 | −3.3% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $7.62 | −8.8% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $7.97 | −2.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.